The initial move from the election seems long in the legs and perhaps is ready to pause. We have seen a couple of companies do secondaries, which is a perfectly rational and reasonable response. It has been an awful environment to raise cash, so many need cash and this is a nice time to refill […]
November 14 Biotech Update
And we continue with the Trump effect in the sector. As I noted before this is going to be a longer term tailwind despite what people argue about the potential transitory nature. Yes, we will not go straight up and yes it is not 100% positive forever but this is a sector that has grossly […]
November 11 Biotech Update
The sector momentum continued and there is no reason to expect it will end soon. Of course, nothing goes straight up but as I noted before there are numerous tailwinds and if we can hit on the year end catalysts, then it could actually accelerate higher in the next couple months. So what could be […]
Catatonic Economics – Unpacking a Trump win
On October 9, 2016, I made a prediction about this election that has come true. Hillary would lead the polls by 5 points throughout the election, and Trump would win. Trump’s campaign expressed the anger of the Americans who have been disenfranchised for 20 or so years. It is the opposite pendulum swing of Obama’s […]
November 9 Biotech Update
There is not a lot of stock specific news but I want to spend some time today talking about the election results and its implications and then starting Friday I will move to talking about upcoming catalysts for the sector. The election results were clearly outside of expectations and not only did we not have […]
November 8 Biotech Update
This is going to be a very interesting test for the sector. There are two events that should crush the sector (or would have recently) but will it? Odds are Clinton will be elected President and we just had a slew of awful earnings and negative news. If we can hold up in the face […]
November 7 Biotech Update
Welcome to election week and stock performance across the board are going to be highly correlated. I suspect the move today is the pricing in of an increased probability of a Clinton victory. At this point, my expected outcome is a Clinton victory, Republicans hold the house, and the Senate is all but split up […]
A Deep Dive in SRPT Chart!
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT) -Nasdaq During the past six weeks we had so many stories, with or against SRPT approval, where a 10-million shares short sellers are still traped in this name with a significant loss after the FDA approval, and they are trying nonstop any way or attack to find a way to make […]
November 4 Biotech Update
There has been nothing reasonable, rational, or predictable about the price action in the sector recently. The sell off yesterday on the ASH abstracts (supposedly the catalyst) is the height of irrational. This is not to say that there was no relevant data but 90%+ of the abstract data were either not new or not […]
November 2 Biotech Update
Any selling we see today cannot really be blamed on sentiment or the elections as we had our first day (in my opinion) of fundamentally bad earnings. Up to this point, it seems that the earnings were in-line to better than expectations but certainly not perfect. This is not the case for the big earnings […]
November 1 Biotech Update
We have more of the same with basically solid fundamental reports but certainly not perfect and I suspect it will lead to another day lower with the outperformer that will likely fade tomorrow. Despite heading into earnings season with low expectations, awful sentiment, and a large sell off, the market has chosen to focus on […]
October 31 Biotech Update
There is nothing that seems to help the sector. The clear sentiment headwind is the election and that is certainly plausible. A non-democratic sweep of the presidency, senate, and house should be good for the sector. Of course, everyone expects that so usually when everyone expects something the market does not act in that way. […]
October 28 Biotech Update
A week into earnings season and while it is not perfect, it is clearly better than the fears going in and the price action indicated. No company has really missed in a big way. A fair number of companies beat and raised and you had some positive clinical news sprinkled in. That being said the […]
October 26 Biotech Update
It looks like the sector is not responding well to decent news. As I noted yesterday nothing has had a perfect press release but given the selloff perfect news was clearly not priced in. To be clear, there is some positive price action on positive news but it seems very isolated and very susceptible to […]
October 25 Biotech Update
Earnings have started and so far nothing great but nothing horrible. In fact there were some notable misses but we may be at the point that misses will rally stocks given how low expectations have fallen. So not only do we need to pay attention to what the earnings say about the fundamentals of the […]
October 24 Biotech Update
We have almost a perfect storm of negativity to hit the sector to start the week- a week that people were already worried about with the slew of earnings that will be coming. There are a plethora of major mergers throughout the market but none in biotech. The M&A thesis has been a core to […]
October 21 Biotech Update
Clearly the sector did not turn the corner after the presidential debate even though it should have assuaged concerns over the importance of drug pricing to the candidates. The sector had a small recovery and with the positive news released last night, this should have been a nice tailwind. Any sort of early pop has […]
Dave Trading – October Edition – Bargain Hunting Time?
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
October 19 Biotech Update
There is really nothing to talk about today with a lack of news. I suspect we will be weak into the final debate and stretch run of the campaign. Recent polls are showing the potential of a wave election which would at the very least give the democrats the Senate with an increasing chance of […]
October 18 Biotech Update
It is still not great out there for the sector but yesterday was not awful, which I guess is an improvement. Perhaps we have reached a short term bottom and whether this is a longer term bottom I think depends on how comfortable investors are about the election. We clearly built in some expectation for […]
