March 22 Biotech Update

We finally had a 1%+ down day in the market, so we can finally stop seeing on the tweets about how long it has been since a 1% sell off. This broader market weakness led to sector weakness- not surprisingly. Of course, this is right after Trump made another comment on drug pricing, so this […]

March 21 Biotech Update

While we are still seeing the residual impact of the PCSK9 news and events, I want to step back from that news and focus on some other companies/areas. Clearly it will take time for the news to settle into stocks but there has been some additional news. First, Trump talked about drug pricing (again) and […]

March 20 ESPR Update

A quick note on ESPR as I somehow missed the FDA news this morning that a couple of you kindly pointed out. This makes the move much more reasonable than I first thought. So what does this mean? First, the odds of the drugs approval are likely higher given the LDL lowering endpoint is easier […]

March 20 Biotech Update

Another week and another attempt at the 300 level on the IBB and another week with no real M&A. We are still dealing with the aftermath of the AMGN data and while there seems to be some recovery, I want to spend today talking about a potential implication that seems to have been flying under […]

March 17 Biotech Update

Well, this is not going to be a good day for the sector and that wall at 300 in the IBB is likely safe for now. The key culprit is going to be the AMGN outcomes data, which is a massive disappointment (for anyone outside of AMGN who apparently think it is great). While one […]

March 15 Biotech Update

The PARP wars have ramped up with the AZN data. This was important data for the PARP wars but sort of important for the sector more broadly as this is a new class of drugs that seemingly has an impressive impact on the lives of patients. I think the PCSK9 data later this week are […]

March 14 Biotech Update

The sector is on the edge of either breaking down or breaking out. While it is hard to have very strong conviction, I would lean towards a breakout especially given the potential news this week. Obviously the data can change where we move but I do think it will send a sign as to the […]

Dave Trading – April 2017

*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor.  Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide.  You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]

March 13 Biotech Update

Certainly getting some more news and events that could be driving the sector but nothing really thesis changing, we need to wait for the end of the week with the PCSK9 data. As we wait for that data, there are some interesting notes and company specific information that we can talk about. 1. KPTI was […]

March 10 Biotech Update

The sector has been interesting. Given the past 18 months, it feels easy to be bearish on every pullback consolidation but I am incrementally more positive. It is starting to feel more like a pause at an important level of resistance as opposed to the start of a large retracement. Obviously we likely need some […]

March 8 Biotech Update

I was not too busy to write yesterday but there was really nothing that I could find that was interesting enough to write about. I looked for something and there was a big lack of company specific news and that is the case today as well. We are a little too early to talk about […]

March 6 Biotech Update

There is a little bit of news to start the week but nothing that likely seems thesis changing or will have a dramatic impact on sentiment/trends. We are in the tail end of earnings with a drum beat of small caps that might have some impact on the individuals companies but little on the sector. […]

March 3 Biotech Update

I think the sector has been rational the past couple of days in that good news is generally moving stocks higher and bad news lower. If there was a broader trend I would say weak but it almost seems out of sync with the broader market. When the broader market rallied the sector lagged and […]

March 1 Biotech Update

Not a lot of news the past couple of days but certainly some interesting events to talk about. I will focus on two but more generally the sector is doing well. There seems to be some more interest in the sector and the move in CELG might be that early warning signal of generalist interest […]

February 27 Biotech Update

I have snuck into work during this Mardi Gras break but not much to write on so this will be a quick update and will likely be back later in the week. 1. ONCS held up better than I thought it would and with the fast track news today and KOL talk tomorrow, I will […]

February 24 Biotech Update

Weakness (sort of) continuing in the sector but perhaps that is simply drifting or consolidation after its recent performance. In either case, it still seems like people are unwilling to fully commit to the sector and my early warning signal of generalist entrance (and likely sustained outperformance) will be outperformance of CELG. That is a […]

February 22 Biotech Update

A little bit of news since yesterday and I will focus on them but more broadly the sector seemed to struggle yesterday. It had been outperforming so a day of relative weakness is not unexpected but was certainly a sell biotech and buy everything else sort of day. Let us see if that pattern continues […]

February 21 Biotech Update

Long weekend and a significant lack of news. I do not think there was an expectation of big news but sometimes these long weekends can surprise with a flurry of mergers- not today. Without anything major I will do a series of quick hits on the news since last Friday. Market is doing well to […]

February 17 Biotech Update

Some news to talk about today in a couple stocks and one idea I want to float that has been ruminating in my mind. The sector continues to do well as is the market in general. There has been some talk that the melt up is related to a massive synthetic short position in the […]

Dave Trading – March 2017

*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor.  Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide.  You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]