The incentives to invert Now that we have determined that inversions are not in America’s best interest and that multinational corporations are now actively seeking to invert, we must critically consider how to stop inversions. However, it is prudent to first understand the full scope of the incentives to invert. Results have shown that inversion […]
January 25 Biotech Update
Tomorrow is our big earning day (will not be able to write tomorrow so look for an update on the news Friday) but today we at least had a positive earnings with NVS. While I am sure there will be tradable extreme moves, the sector is going to continue to need positive earnings and data […]
Tax Inversions: Regulation Chasing Corporate Tax Loopholes Part 3
A brief history of corporate tax inversion In 1982, McDermott Inc., an industrial company making nuclear reactor parts for the US Navy as well as deepsea oil and gas production facilities, decided to expatriate to Panama where one of their subsidiaries were located and renamed themselves McDermott International (Hines, 1991). This was done by having […]
January 24 Biotech Update
Still a slow start to the week especially for an earnings week. I will highlight a couple biotech points and one non-biotech. In terms of the non-biotech, I am becoming increasingly worried about the market in general. Keep in mind that one of the key advisors to Trump is Icahn who noted previously that the […]
Dave Trading – February 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
Tax Inversions: Regulation Chasing Corporate Tax Loopholes Part 2
Corporate Tax impact on the Economy It is well documented through economic circles that taxes skew relative prices by shifting the supply curve to the left in a standard supply-demand model to create a deadweight loss. The deadweight loss is the area of the subsequent triangle with the endpoints at the pre-tax equilibrium, the supply […]
January 23 Biotech Update
There is not a lot of new news out this week but this is a week where earnings start, which could pick up the pace a little in terms of fundamental news. Two potential caveats. First, coming on the heels of JPM there is likely not a lot of new information to be provided. Companies […]
Dave-Trading Alert – CELG
I was still not exercised, but it looks like tonight our CELG options will be exercised. Monday, we will be selling the February $120 calls. We will have 200 CELG shares, therefore we will sell 2 calls. Right now they are priced at ~$1.18, but we will see their price on Monday. If you remember, […]
January 20th Biotech Update
We are getting some more offerings as is expected post JPM but they seem slower than usual. In any case, we have more large cap pharma news that is pretty meaningful that I want to focus on today. 1. BMY noted last night that they will not be pursuing accelerated approval for front line NSCLC […]
Tax Inversions: Regulation Chasing Corporate Tax Loopholes Part 1
The following was a research project completed for my Economics of Regulation class about tax inversions, the implications, and proposed solutions. Since this is a large paper, it will be split into 6 parts and published daily. Abstract – Corporate inversions have grown in popularity in recent years, and has drawn quite a bit of […]
January 18 Biotech Update
We have some news to talk about that seems to be a net neutral but in terms of individual stocks are likely meaningful. I also do not want to beat a point into the ground but I read an article that interviewed some republican legislators, who seemed to imply I was correct about Trump to […]
January 17 Biotech Update
The sector appears to have shrugged off (relatively speaking as to what could have happened) the recent Trump noise on the industry and likely for good reason. It is only a matter of time before the market learns that the President-elect is likely a lot more bark than bite and in the case of the […]
January 13 Biotech Update
JPM is over and I am back. It is a lot to digest, so I will do some broad highlights today and then get more into details on Monday. To be honest, there is actually less to digest than previous years and most of the presentations were webcast but there is some interesting colors that […]
January 9 Biotech Update
I am getting ready to head out to JPM but I wanted to have a quick JPM note this morning. In general, the news has been a little slow as compared to expectations but certainly bullish. I will highlight a couple of the more important stories. 1. We have almost $6B in deals in one […]
January 6 Biotech Update
News continues to come in (both expected and unexpected) and the sector remains strong into JPM. Usually there is a tailwind JPM week that can last a little but eventually all the secondaries that come after JPM stall the momentum. Last year was obviously an exception to that pattern but it seems (at least so […]
January 5 Biotech Update
News is starting to pick up as we approach JPM. This should continue through the weekend. There has not really been anything dramatic today as these early birds tend to be companies that would be overwhelmed by the bigger announcements expected closer to JPM. All in all, the net-net of news this morning has been […]
January 4 Biotech Update
The year continues at two for two with another trial failure but so far the market is shrugging it off. It is not surprising as expectations build for JPM. Usually the Monday of JPM is filled with news but it has been creeping forward a little as some companies are releasing news the week before […]
Dave Trading – January 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
Welcome to 2017 and we are not off to a great fundamental start with a phase III failure, capital raises and price increases. In other words, more of the same. I will continue with my previews but want to start off with a broad overview of the sector and perhaps an alternative narrative for 2016 […]
December 26 Biotech Update
I hope that everyone is having a good holiday season. News has slowed to a crawl and I will start making the 2017 previews unless there is some breaking news. I will start with large caps and move down the capital structure. 1. My 2017 large cap biotech pick is CELG (surprise) but I am […]
