We have some news and perhaps additional news but unconfirmed as of yet. In general, however, the sector seems to be more or less treading water without a real upside or downside balance. This is potentially a longer term positive as we might be consolidating the breakout through time as opposed to price. I still […]
July 12 Biotech Update
Another day with little news (at least early as the NVS ad com is today). This is really the calm before the storm as we are inching closer to the end of the summer and the start of the fall brokerage conferences and we are actually only a couple weeks away from the start of […]
July 11 Biotech Update
We are getting some news at least but nothing that is thesis changing but perhaps just enough to move the needle for the sector but that is to be determined. I want to touch on some of the more broadly applicable news that happened in the past 24 hours. 1. Perhaps the most important news […]
July 10 Biotech Update
I think the summer doldrums have more than officially set into the market. There is little news to start the week so I expect today to be a low volume move with perhaps a slight bias to the upside as that has been the recent trend. Perhaps there will be some selling pressure in the […]
July 7 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be consolidating its previous move although the broader market does not necessarily look that strong. That being said the trend for the sector is higher and outperformance at least in the recent past. I still expect it to test the breakout level at which point everyone will be expecting the levels […]
July 6 Biotech Update
I am back from vacation and seem to have brought some selling with me. I did not follow the market closely at all so I need to catch up a little but it looks like it more or less was grinding around the recent highs if not drifting a little lower. I had some buy […]
June 23 Biotech Update
We are finally getting a break in the move higher but it has been quiet impressive. There was less excitement in the move than I would have thought, which I see as a sign that a lot were caught flat footed and felt under-invested (although gauging sentiment from twitter might not be the best idea). […]
June 22 Biotech Update
The sector continues to rocket higher as clearly sentiment has reversed. This run likely has more legs than anyone thinks. The sector has been in a massive bear market and churned sideways for about 18 months. We were barely 5% above the upper end of the range and I saw comments about the sector looking […]
June 21 Biotech Update
Biotech is clearly back. We appear to be breaking out of the range with perhaps broadening participation and increasing volume. I am not a technician but this is looking good. There is not a lot of news but I wanted to touch on a couple of quick points and make this a relatively short note. […]
June 20 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be breaking out of its range with another early show of strength. While it is still early and we have been here before, the background seems better for a breakout. We have yet to have a real negative catalyst (has been the pattern) and political overhang is leaving. As a side […]
June 19 Biotech Update
The sector finally does not have bad news this morning to undercut any momentum. We are still waiting on the M&A cycle to start but at this point I do not think anyone is investing in the sector on the expectation of M&A (that is good to see). We are still in the same old […]
Dave Trading – July 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
June 15 Biotech Update
The market is certainly continuing its recent weakness (especially NASDAQ) but today biotech is down with it. Is this the start of another move to the lower end of its range or is this the pause for the breakout of the range? If history is any guide this is the start of a move to […]
June 14 Biotech Update
The trading seems to be more of the same in that the sector is modestly outperforming the market but more or less simply trading flat. There are certainly some moves under the surface but the sector writ large has more or less flatlined for about 18 months now and that has become even more obvious […]
June 13 Biotech Update
It is days like this that show why the sector cannot have nice things (as the saying goes). We seemed to be getting some traction and were approaching what has been strong resistance and we get hit with bad news. I said it before and I will say it again, I think people are attributing […]
June 12 Biotech Update
Another slow start to the week with little news and no M&A. The sector did end last week outperforming a falling market and that is continuing today (weak market with relative strength in biotech). That is a good sign but there is very little chance that the sector could hold up in a more severe […]
June 9 Biotech Update
I want to end this week with an ASCO follow up and talking about something new. I must say that the sector is doing modestly better than I had feared and seems to have gotten its legs. This obviously does not mean that it is going to run but at least it does not seem […]
June 7 Biotech Update
I want to focus on a couple of specific companies in more detail over the next couple of days. There seems to have been a couple of irrational reactions to ASCO news and it is important to understand why they are irrational. Of course, it could be that I am wrong but I will try […]
June 6 Biotech Update
I am back from ASCO with a lot to cover and I will focus on broader themes today and spend the rest of the week with more company specific commentary. The reaction to ASCO so far has been bad but as I noted before that is not completely unexpected. The trading action before ASCO does […]
June 1 Biotech Update
The sector sort of had some positive news yesterday with TSRO putting itself on the proverbial block. This obviously moved TSRO and sector as it reminded people that good things might happen as well. Given that this was meaningful for the sector (and the lack of other news) I want to focus on a couple […]