July 14th Biotech Update

Yesterday was an odd day. We started off consistently strong and ended up quite weak.  There were two pieces of news in the afternoon that happened close to the same time: two of the larger California school districts going online for the fall and the US rejecting all of China’s South China Sea claims.  I […]

July 13th Biotech Update

It seems as if the news is really starting to dry up as we get closer to earnings seasons (plus the usual summer doldrums is probably also having an effect).  I expected at least some news to start the week but there really is not much which likely means the sector will follow any macro […]

July 10th Biotech Update

So the sector had its breakout above the old range.  It was tested and held and now we seem to be establishing a new range or we could actually be setting up a trend move higher.  It is hard to see anything really clear with the sector at this point.  In some ways it depends […]

July 8th Biotech (and MLP) Update

We are getting some news as the week progresses but it still remains a little slow on the news.  I suspect that this continues as we have the start of earning season at the end of the month and so unless there is really noteworthy news companies are going to likely wait until earnings to […]

July 6th Biotech Update

It was a long holiday weekend and the back of our mind expectations/hope is that we get extra good news to start the week, especially news on the M&A front.  Well, we are pretty much a dud on news to start this week.  There are no new deals and there is nothing really noteworthy on […]

July 2nd Biotech Update

The news seems to have dried up as we head into the long weekend.  We had “positive” jobs data that seems to be sparking a rally.  While the data are good, it is also on the back of the expanded epidemic so it seems a little unsustainable as there have been repeated closings in the […]

July 1st Biotech Update

The market seems to be a little indecisive at this point.  We are getting some moves but nothing that seems sustained and only to be reversed to the other side.  At this point, it seems the sector has retested the breakout levels and all else being equal should be setup for a continued move higher.  […]

June 30th Biotech Update

Sorry, I missed writing on Monday as I try to stay as consistent as possible on Monday as I think it sets up the week.  My daughter went on a beech vacation with her friend and their family late last week.  Long story short, she got home sick and led to being physically ill, so […]

June 26th Biotech Update

The sector remains strong with a green day yesterday as well as a relative outperformance to the broader market.  I guess COVID will not matter until it does but I remain worried that it is only a matter of time before case growth (and like deaths) become too high to ignore.  This morning we seem […]

June 25th Biotech Update

The sector seems poised to test the breakout sooner rather than later.  I am becoming increasing of two minds about the market.  I often say (and try) to trade (invest) the market as it is and not as you think it should be.  The sector is trading strong with a clear breakout of a decent […]

June 24th Biotech Update

Clearly we have a breakout in the sector.  The next phase will be the retest of the breakout and the old resistance should act as new support.  How far do we run until the retest?  I would think that we are probably closer to the start of that retest than continued moves higher but we […]

June 22nd Biotech Update

The sector is trying to break out of its range to the upside.  Not only did it trade above the range on Friday but close above it.  The ultimate confirmation would be a run above the range and then come back and test of the old resistance for support.  So at this point I see […]

June 19th Biotech Update

The sector started the week looking like it might break under the range but has ended the week threatening to break out above the range.   All that being said I strongly suspect that the outcome is that we once again remain in the range.  At some point the range will fail but trying to time […]

June 17th Biotech Update

In a couple of days we are near the upper end of the range for the XBI.  There have been some spikes above this level and one to around $108 that marks the toppity top of the range but we are basically in a neutral space right now.  It is possible that momentum brings us […]

June 16th Biotech Update

Interesting market.  It seemed clear that the sell off was COVID related as we saw the vaccine names as well as the PPE names outperform (and remain green) during the recent selling.  In my mind that added some support to the idea that the support levels in the market might not hold.  Yesterday we saw […]

June 15th Biotech Update

The sector is right at a point of decision. The XBI is below the $100 level but if you look back it peaked at the $99 level late December and again in mid-February.  A close below $99 signals a breaking of the recent range and I would become more bearish.  We have not quite done […]

June 11th Biotech Update

Still not a lot to talk about but the market is starting to feel heavy.  That being said we remain rangebound in the sector.  Sure we are getting these swings and significant red days but we still are basically trading sideways.  This is not true for the broader market that seems more like a top […]

June 9th Biotech (and MLP) Update

Not much to talk about today after yesterday relative flood of news.  The sector remains in its range and despite the negative start, the sector did make a move higher towards the upper end of its range.  The market in general appears disconnected from the economic fundamentals (at least that is the twitter consensus) but […]

June 8th Biotech Update

An interesting start to the week in terms of news at least.  The sector remains mired in its range, which with the news over the weekend seems a little surprising.  My thought Sunday was that we would remain in the range but make a move to the higher end of the range as the news […]