The year is off to an even worst start as all the secondaries are getting bad prices (to varying degrees of bad) and all are breaking those prices. China continues to collapse taking commodities with it as well as strengthening the dollar taking the markets with it. On the encouraging side, the technical analyst at […]
January 6 Biotech Update
The year is really off to a bad start and I am not sure what will reverse it. You have continued bad news with China, which is continuing the rout in commodities and strengthening the dollar killing emerging markets and it seems like the US market. Outside of some bright spots in the service sector, […]
January 5 Biotech Update
While the market recovered a little into the end of the day yesterday and had a slight positive bias this morning, it is still not looking too healthy. I am not sure if this is simply people selling or buyers being afraid to step in. In terms of the sector, I still think JPM will […]
January 4 Biotech Update
Well, 2016 is not off to the best of starts and I am of two minds when it comes to the market. First, there are not a lot of reasons to be excited. Earnings will be poor and macro does not seem conducive with China continuing to weaken. So what will be the catalysts that […]
December 31 Biotech Update
I figured there would be a more positive bias as we headed into the end of the year but the market has seen some selling. Obviously volume is low but the new Clinton talk of drug prices plus the low volumes is probably not good for the sector. Just as the drug pricing issue was […]
December 30 Biotech Update
Nothing newsworthy for the sector has happened in the past day. We had a nice rally the other day and perhaps that continues with a positive bias into the end of the year as investors and traders finish up the year but with volumes drying up it is really a toss-up how it will trade. […]
December 29 Biotech Update
I am back and ready to get into the sector again. Some news since I have been gone but for this week I mainly want to focus on 2016 previews and will try to broadly cover both stocks and broader themes. 1. The first topic today is CMRX. That might have been the biggest phase […]
December 15 Biotech Update
The sector is doing better today but I am still not a believer in the market. Perhaps that in and of itself is a sign of a bottom and perhaps the slowing volumes into the end of the year will bias the sector and markets higher. Regardless, we are still in a macro market and […]
December 14 Biotech Update
We are once again in a macro world and the sector will be driven by it. Of course, even if we were not in a macro world the sector would likely still be underperforming as ASH did not inspire a lot of confidence and the sector offers a lot of chances for tax loss selling […]
December 11 Biotech Update
The sector remains mixed although there does not seem to be anything in the market to inspire a lot of confidence. We have macro coming with the likely first rate hike (I have no confidence in judging how the market would react to a rate hike or no hike event) and even within the sector […]
December 9 Biotech Update
So it was a busy ASH and not necessarily a good one for the sector. On a net-net basis the data were fine but we had a big miss on perhaps the most important data set for the sector and that drove sentiment and price action. I will go through some of my post-ASH thoughts […]
December 4 Biotech Update
It has been a bad week for the sector as we head into ASH. Perhaps this is setting up good run ups on positive data but usually weak tapes do not generate significant upside on positive catalysts. It seems that these moves are macro related (perhaps worry about interest rate hike), although we have had […]
December 2 Biotech Update
The sector was weak yesterday and this morning at the open. It is not clear to me if the weakness is just a give back from the low volume rallies last week or something news related. There was some noise out of DC about GILD and the pricing of Sovaldi. There was a massive report […]
November 30 Biotech Update
We are heading into ASH and that is sure to be the topic of much discussion but I find it more and more difficult to trade these medical conferences as everyone is trying to trade these medical conferences. Not only do you need to accurately figure out the catalyst but also need to accurately figure […]
November 25 Biotech Update
Trading is slow this week but news is not. Yesterday was better but I still think it is too early to call the sector back but at the very least I believe is has found its footing. Interestingly it seems that the SMID caps are outperforming the larger caps (finally) although they have a lot […]
November 23 Biotech Update
Of course, it is Thanksgiving week and the kids have off school so I will keep this focused on the big news of the day and that is the PFE/AGN merger agreement. I am doing this quickly so please excuse typos and other issues. 1. The deal is cheaper than I expected and I thought […]
November 20 Biotech Update
The sector still cannot gain real footing and follow positive days with additional positive days. That being said as long as the positive days either outnumber or have higher gains than the losing day loses, then we can churn higher (or at the very least churn sideways and build a nice base). I am sure […]
November 18 Biotech Update
It seems like every time I am out of town something major happens. I have not really followed the sector trading, so I cannot really comment on that but obviously there is some major news that will be the focus of a couple of articles. 1. As much as one tries to avoid blowups, if […]
November 13 Biotech Update
It has been a tough couple of days with pretty broad weakness but we will see how we end the week as many stocks have had a decent run so a pause is not unexpected (or bearish- yet). I am still not convinced the rallies have not been short covering and if we are to […]
November 11 Biotech Update
The market seems mixed and searching for direction. It seems hard to see a clear trend in the sector or within the sector. Some large caps are strong and others weak. Some SMID are strong and others weak. Perhaps this is the start of my “stock picking” thesis playing out but it could also simply […]
