We are limping into holiday, which I do not read all that much into it. Volumes and news are slow and as long as we end up above $72, I think we are in good shape. The issue would be a low volume selloff that breaks this mini-trend we have established. In that case, do […]
November 20th Biotech Update
It was a good end to the week and let us see how we start. I do not know how to really read the moves this week as I suspect it is going to be pretty slow on the news and the volume front. This morning is probably pretty indicative as to what we would […]
November 17th Biotech Update
I am going to keep this one short as there is not a ton of news, which is not surprising as we enter into the Thanksgiving holiday week. I think we certainly have had a good week, even though I sort of feel that it could have been better. The little loss of momentum yesterday […]
November 16th Biotech Update
It looks like we are breaking above the recent high and are setting up the potential of an actual uptrend. I would be cautious as we have been disappointed before, but this is about as good the sector has looked in a while. The gap between the sector performance and the broader market is very […]
November 14th Biotech Update
Yesterday did not start the way we wanted but it certainly ended much better. A red to green move down at the lower levels is a good sign that support is building. The next part of the process (if we can start to build a bull case) would be a continuation of that momentum, which […]
November 13th Biotech Update
We had a nice little reversal on Friday and that could set us up well into this week. We certainly need to build off of that move and have a solid week of green. We had some nice solid news this weekend on the data front that could stimulate some more fundamental interest in the […]
November 10th Biotech Update
Kind of a bad way to end the week but is it? The sector got hit with a double whammy of bad news plus Fed talk that was pretty hawkish on rates. So the two biggest issues for the sector were brought to the forefront and it pummeled the sector once again. I still think […]
November 9th Biotech Update
Is this a week of consolidation or the new high to be followed by a lower low? We have broken the clear trend lower that had been operating for the past 6 months but only marginally so. One could look at the chart and still see a basic downtrend as we made our way to […]
November 7th Biotech Update
It was not the best of Mondays but given the strength of last week, we were bound for a pullback. That being said, we are at a precarious point in that we hit resistance and pulled back. So in some ways this looks quite natural to pullback at this area but it also does leave […]
November 6th Biotech Update
Well, that was quite the week and end to the week. Why the sudden strong end to the week on top of a good week? The economy was weaker than expected. We are not close to a recession, but the data came in weaker than expected, which means rates could have peaked and the rising […]
November 2nd Biotech Update
The bounce continues but it still is not good enough to break the downtrend. This certainly feels good to be rallying but my base case remains that the trend continues until broken. The trend is down and while I intuitively think we are close to a bottom, I still think we need to be exceptionally […]
November 1st Biotech Update
The best sign for the overall market was the reversal on a day in which the SMID space could have been hammered by the SRPT news. The sector started lower but then recovered to end solidly green. That is a strong signal as to the overall health of the sector. That is not to say […]
October 31st Spooky Biotech Update
We had a nice start to the week and I thought we would have enough momentum to keep it going but the SRPT news might throw some cold water on the rally. Or it might be seen a specific enough to SRPT to not stop too much. This is actually a good signal as to […]
October 30th Biotech Update
It was not a great end to last week and it looks like we are going to be getting to that $62 level sooner rather than later. I still sort of worry that we have not had a panic move but perhaps we are setting ourselves up that move this week. In any case, $62 […]
October 27th Biotech Update
It has been a mixed week. I could certainly have seen it play out better but I have certainly seen worse. As they say bottoming is a process and as long as we have not broken to lower lows, we could be in that process. Of course, resetting oversold conditions for another leg lower is […]
October 25th Biotech Update
A bounce feels good but as had been the case it really means nothing unless we can break above the lower high (which in this case is around $72). Every one of these bounces has the chance to do so but as you know my mantra has been that we are likely to see $62 […]
October 23rd Biotech Update
The market is not doing well with rates moving higher still and we all know what that means for the sector. It looks like yet another day with generally positive news in the sector and yet we will not be able to move higher. I feel like we are at the stage where everyone is […]
October 20th Biotech Update
When the market zigs when the information zags, it sends a strong signal. That was why I think PFE put in a bottom when they massively cut revenue guidance but ended up green. Last night was a set of good news for the sector (not massively so but certainly important news) and so we should […]
October 19th Biotech Update
And just like that the potential relief rally is over. We are breaking new lows and the little rally looks like another lower high. I had at least one day of potential hope for the sector but my long-standing view that we are heading to the $62 area seems unfortunately accurate. Of course, there is […]
October 18th Biotech Update
I am back and I am not sure if everyone should be happy or sad. There was a significant selloff while I was away but the past couple of days have had a nice bounce. I honestly feel a little better with the sector right now (as I will explain below) but we have neither […]
