We seem to be doing a little better today but not really getting any momentum to the upside. We have an upcoming rate decision but I doubt that will be market moving unless the commentary comes out unexpectedly bullish or bearish on rates. I suspect it will be continue to follow the data and while […]
January 30th Biotech Update
A mixed start to the week. Yesterday was quite positive and constructive and today we are giving up most of the gains. We seem to be in a choppy market for the sector and perhaps we are setting up for a more significant trend move (higher or lower) but I still think we are basically […]
January 26th Biotech Update
The sector is bouncing along and while it is underperforming the broader markets, I still see it as digesting the large move at the end of last year. I think this is how the sector works. A long period of underperformance followed by a short burst of large outperformance. It would be less stressful to […]
January 24th Biotech Update
The sector has been dragging for a little. Not really bouncing from the recent selling but also not accelerating to the downside. I still have no real conviction whether or not the next move is another leg lower or a bounce from here. I do have the conviction that even another leg lower does not […]
January 22nd Biotech Update
My call of post-JPM weakness has been accurate and while expected, it is not a great feeling especially with the broader market doing so well. I think we are in a zone where we could find some support, but I am not convinced that this is the level from which we bounce. The post-JPM weakness […]
January 19th Biotech Update
I was expecting weakness and that is what we have. I am not that concerned about the selling and even if it accelerates, I would still see it as typical for this time of year (especially after the strength the sector showed to end the year). There is a large move higher that needs to […]
January 17th Biotech Update
A little bit of expected weakness to start the week. I am not sure how much of a pullback is coming but I still think we are due for one. As I noted yesterday, it is perfectly consistent with previous patterns and this weakness could be more than just a couple of days but weeks […]
January 16th Biotech Update
JPM is over and it was an OK conference. It was not the best with deals but there was a big group right before the conference and so all in it was a hefty amount of deals. The conference appeared one of the more upbeat in recent years and that bodes well. I think we […]
January 11th Biotech Update
JPM has been a little slow on the news front. There were a couple of small deals and some rumors of others, but it really looks like December was the real flood of M&A as opposed to JPM. If we look at the past month or so, then the deals have been quite robust, just […]
January 8th Biotech Update
I got dismissed early for the day from jury duty (have to be back bright and early tomorrow) and so I wanted to get some quick thoughts on the start of JPM week, so I do not get too far behind. The sector started off a little weak but came back strong in the afternoon. […]
January 5th Biotech Update
We are slowing into the end of the week, which makes sense for the sector as we gear up for JPM. We have had a slowdown in the upside momentum but that it not bad as it gives the chart time to reset and work off the overbought conditions. It was an incredibly strong run […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
A decent start to the trading of the year. Are we looking a little toppy? Perhaps. I am not a fan of the sector not ending at the highs of the day. We still were green but we were stronger earlier in the day than later. I would not be stunned if the sector paused […]
January 2nd Biotech Update
A decent start to the new year. We are near the highs for the sector and are setting up a potential breakout. I am not sure that it happens this week but could very well happen with JPM related news starting later this week. I know that JPM starts next week but sometimes companies like […]
December 28th Biotech Update
The sector remains strong. It feels good to be talking about the continued strength longer than one would have expected. I would still be cautious about new positions as the chart looks a little stretched. I do not think we are anywhere near the end of this bull market, but all bull markets need time […]
December 27th Biotech Update
It has been one nice of a run for the sector and it looks almost straight up since the bottom. This is a case of chasing and FOMO into the end of the year. In the middle of November, I do not think anyone was saying we would be ending the year close to 52-week […]
December 26th Biotech Update
We are ending the year with a bang. It looks like a lot of companies are wanting to get ahead of the JPM news cycle and are announcing deals pretty early. I do wonder now what this means for the JPM hype cycle as it we now have had a good number of larger bolt […]
December 21st Biotech Update
Not the best day for the sector as trading slows down closer to the holidays. I had been thinking we pullback further but even a 1% decline basically keeps us in this sideways range and then the afternoon happened. It was not clear why the market suddenly decided to correct through price, but I was […]
December 19th Biotech Update
The sector has been holding up pretty well. I have been in the camp that we are going to have a little correction via price in the near term (I think down to around the $81 level looks like solid support) but up to this point the correction have been through time (sideways trading as […]
December 18th Biotech Update
We have had quite the run the past couple of weeks. I think news probably begins to slow as we approach the end of the year and as companies perhaps start saving news for JPM. Obviously, there are limits as to how long you can sit on material news but companies do like to hit […]
December 14th Biotech Update
News is going to start slowing as we get closer to the holiday and new year. That being said we are having some very nice momentum to end the year. This is probably the strongest we have been for a long time. It seems clear that rates have peaked, and the next move will be […]
