The whole market is looking heavy and the IWM broke below key support. The sector is not going to be able to hold up if this continues but luckily there is still the rising 200 day just below $300 on the IBB that could be additional support. So would the IBB breaking below $300 surprise […]
August 17 Biotech Update
There is nothing to dissuade me that risk on is creeping back into the market as North Korea is fading into the background (for how long who knows but that is the current trend). As such, this will generally be good for the sector but we are approaching some seasonally weak periods for the market […]
August 16 Biotech Update
The recovery continues as risk-on seems to be heading back into the market. Part of me sees this as what I expected in terms of a sell off to test the break out, the previous resistance holding as support, and now we continue higher. The other part of me sees a wall of worry that […]
August 14 Biotech Update
We survived the weekend without a nuclear holocaust so I guess that is good for a relief rally. That seems a little misplaced in that the weather has been bad all weekend over the Korean peninsula, so the odds of a test firing was low. The real risk of escalation is a little over a […]
August 11 Biotech Update
The macro risks are helping to bring down the sector and we are just about at those breakout levels that I have been talking about. Of course, I also noted that when we test it no one is going to want to buy and that includes me. While nuclear war would obviously send us lower […]
August 9 Biotech Update
The sector weakness continues but is still doing so on the back of good fundamental news. Of course, all the news has not been positive but we are seeing beats, beats and raises, and positive data reports much more than misses, guidedowns, and negative data. Despite this positive backdrop there is continued weakness and partly […]
August 8 Biotech Update
Another day with some news and catch up. The sector is still not doing well as we see positive individual moves that seem to have no read through other stocks. Of course, we are also getting some pretty negative news so perhaps we are simply seeing a balancing of those impacts but it seems that […]
August 7 BiotechUpdate
We have some interesting earnings news but this will more be catch up from the last week. My broader view is that despite any positive or negative news the sector is more likely than not to retest the breakout levels. There is some support at the current levels so there might be a near term […]
August 4 Biotech Update
I am back from my last trip of the summer and to be honest it is going to take me the weekend to catch up on all the news. That being said there are a couple of points I can make that are essentially the frame I will use to look at the recent news. […]
July 27 Biotech Update
There is a lot to talk about today, so I will jump right into the most interesting and important news. 1. MYSTIC did not meet the primary PFS endpoint. There was no PFS benefit over chemo with either monotherapy or combination. This is disappointing but not necessarily the end of the story. While the details […]
July 26 Biotech Update
If there has been a consistent theme to earnings this week it has been beat and raise but with stock underperformance. This is not great in the near term as you would prefer good news leading to positive price action but it is not stunning given the recent price action in the sector. If this […]
July 24 Biotech Update
It should be a big week for news but it is starting a little slow, which is not unexpected as the earnings are clustered Tuesday through Thursday. There is some minor news to start the week but it is simply a small appetizer as to what should be a week of news. That being said […]
July 21 Biotech Update
I am back and missed all the fireworks yesterday. This week has gone quite well for the sector in terms of fundamentals and the price action reflected it. We sort of dodge a bullet as continued weakness would have been a significant problem. News will continue next week with the start of the large cap […]
July 19 Biotech Update
The sector got a big boost from VRTX last night. If it cannot rally off of this news, then buckle your seatbelts and hedge your positions as there is unlikely to be better news anytime soon. The only large catalyst that could match this impact would be a home run for MYSTIC or AXON crushing […]
July 18 Biotech Update
There seems to be a negative pattern developing with strength early that gives way to weakness later in the day. This is not totally unexpected given the need to consolidate but it is certainly sending a signal. We have a set of good news last night and this morning and this should be the strongest […]
July 17 Biotech Update
A little bit of news to start the week but nothing dramatic and still none of the M&A that was supposed to explode this year leading the recovery of the sector. It is starting to look like the next big set of catalysts for the sector will be earnings that are actually starting this week […]
July 14 Biotech Update
Not a lot of news to end the week, so I will touch on a couple of quick longer term themes. The sector was a little stronger than I would have expected yesterday on the back of the news that medicare will not run out of money until 2029 meaning that IPAB will not be […]
July 13 Biotech Update
We have some news and perhaps additional news but unconfirmed as of yet. In general, however, the sector seems to be more or less treading water without a real upside or downside balance. This is potentially a longer term positive as we might be consolidating the breakout through time as opposed to price. I still […]
July 12 Biotech Update
Another day with little news (at least early as the NVS ad com is today). This is really the calm before the storm as we are inching closer to the end of the summer and the start of the fall brokerage conferences and we are actually only a couple weeks away from the start of […]
July 11 Biotech Update
We are getting some news at least but nothing that is thesis changing but perhaps just enough to move the needle for the sector but that is to be determined. I want to touch on some of the more broadly applicable news that happened in the past 24 hours. 1. Perhaps the most important news […]
