A relatively quiet start to the week (at least for the sector). North Korea remains a concern but despite the nuclear test the response of the US and South Korea remains blowing up dirt with their own missiles. At this point the risk that the US has a military response is minimal. Remember that it […]
September 1 Biotech Update
They say that the market never bottoms on a Friday and I wonder if the same is true of topping? The sector has clearly had a strong near term move and is due for a pause but would strength today be the near term top or is there more to go? Over the longer term […]
August 31 Biotech Update
The good news and move for the sector continues. In isolation the move higher seems a stretch in terms of the fundamental news that we have seen the past week. The news has been good but we have had weeks with better news and did not have this reaction. Clearly sentiment has changed in the […]
August 30 Biotech Update
The sector and perhaps even broader market look good. One of my fears about the risk of a government shut down and/or debt ceiling might be resolving to a certain extent. There seems to be a growing consensus to do a three month funding, debt ceiling hike, and hurricane Harvey relief in a single bill. […]
August 28 Biotech Update
The long sector nightmare is over and we have a merger Monday and GILD did a deal. There was also some interesting BIIB data that has been loss in the shuffle but let us focus on the deal and what it tells us going forward. 1. Once again let me note that I am a […]
August 25 Biotech Update
The news flow has picked up marginally but nothing that is thesis changing for the sector. Volume is generally low and I suspect that the sector will be hostage to the broader market in that its moves will follow it. There is really nothing until the AXON data that could generate a strong independent move […]
August 23 Biotech Update
The sector had a good day yesterday with an early retracement this morning. I am a little surprised that there is not more weakness in the broader market. Last night Trump threatened a shutdown over the border wall funding, which is one of the risks I have been talking about. Does the market think that […]
August 22 Biotech Update
Another day with not a lot of news but we at least have some news to talk about in the doldrums of summer. 1. While we were expect the BPMC data at ESMO, they PRed the data early and to be honest it is not that exciting. In patients with FGFR4 activited the ORR was […]
August 21 Biotech Update
Happy eclipse day. There is little news both in the sector and in the market. This is not necessarily a bad thing as it might give us a sense as to whether there is an underlying bid or offer in the market. Barring any news hitting during the day, I suspect we drift on low […]
August 18 Biotech Update
The whole market is looking heavy and the IWM broke below key support. The sector is not going to be able to hold up if this continues but luckily there is still the rising 200 day just below $300 on the IBB that could be additional support. So would the IBB breaking below $300 surprise […]
August 17 Biotech Update
There is nothing to dissuade me that risk on is creeping back into the market as North Korea is fading into the background (for how long who knows but that is the current trend). As such, this will generally be good for the sector but we are approaching some seasonally weak periods for the market […]
August 16 Biotech Update
The recovery continues as risk-on seems to be heading back into the market. Part of me sees this as what I expected in terms of a sell off to test the break out, the previous resistance holding as support, and now we continue higher. The other part of me sees a wall of worry that […]
August 14 Biotech Update
We survived the weekend without a nuclear holocaust so I guess that is good for a relief rally. That seems a little misplaced in that the weather has been bad all weekend over the Korean peninsula, so the odds of a test firing was low. The real risk of escalation is a little over a […]
August 11 Biotech Update
The macro risks are helping to bring down the sector and we are just about at those breakout levels that I have been talking about. Of course, I also noted that when we test it no one is going to want to buy and that includes me. While nuclear war would obviously send us lower […]
August 9 Biotech Update
The sector weakness continues but is still doing so on the back of good fundamental news. Of course, all the news has not been positive but we are seeing beats, beats and raises, and positive data reports much more than misses, guidedowns, and negative data. Despite this positive backdrop there is continued weakness and partly […]
August 8 Biotech Update
Another day with some news and catch up. The sector is still not doing well as we see positive individual moves that seem to have no read through other stocks. Of course, we are also getting some pretty negative news so perhaps we are simply seeing a balancing of those impacts but it seems that […]
August 7 BiotechUpdate
We have some interesting earnings news but this will more be catch up from the last week. My broader view is that despite any positive or negative news the sector is more likely than not to retest the breakout levels. There is some support at the current levels so there might be a near term […]
August 4 Biotech Update
I am back from my last trip of the summer and to be honest it is going to take me the weekend to catch up on all the news. That being said there are a couple of points I can make that are essentially the frame I will use to look at the recent news. […]
July 27 Biotech Update
There is a lot to talk about today, so I will jump right into the most interesting and important news. 1. MYSTIC did not meet the primary PFS endpoint. There was no PFS benefit over chemo with either monotherapy or combination. This is disappointing but not necessarily the end of the story. While the details […]
July 26 Biotech Update
If there has been a consistent theme to earnings this week it has been beat and raise but with stock underperformance. This is not great in the near term as you would prefer good news leading to positive price action but it is not stunning given the recent price action in the sector. If this […]
