A rough start to the week for the market but we do have some important data from BMY that will be the focus of this note. 1. Overall this was a positive trial where the opdivo/Yervoy combo had a statistically significant PFS benefit over a chemo doublet in NSCLC with tumor mutation burdens (TMB) over […]
February 2 Biotech Update
It looks like the correction continues. Fundamental news does not seem to be matter a lot this week, which seems like typical price action during a correction. This does not seem sector specific and I doubt that it becomes anything more than a correction in a larger bull market but that does not mean it […]
January 31 Biotech Update
We had a nice little correction yesterday but while it was certainly a meaningful move compared to recent price action, it did not really remove any of the real fluff in the sector. That being said it could be enough to reset the “over bought” conditions and lead to a continuation of the rally. While […]
January 30 Biotech Update
The sector remains strong. The market has weakened a little but the sector was still holding on. If the broader market weakness continues, it will eventually drag down the sector but that has not happened yet. Of course, a bit of a pullback is well overdue and will happen eventually but the trigger and timing […]
January 26 Biotech Update
The market is relentless. Just as it is important to buy when the market seems to be going down forever, it is also important to sell on these sort of rips higher. The selling at the high levels is always more difficult for me, so I want to spend some time today talking about potential […]
January 25 Biotech Update
We are getting some biotech earnings but nothing that is dramatically thesis changing. We had a little consolidation yesterday and I would not be surprised to see it continue but the trend remains higher and suspect that we break into new highs in the first quarter (assuming at least a benign general market environment). 1. […]
January 24 Biotech Update
The animal spirits are back. This is the third day of the move, which usually signals a time for consolidation or pause but we are also just starting some important biotech earnings. Assuming nothing surprising happens, a pause is most likely in the immediate term but the move could also be re-energized if more deals […]
January 22 Biotech Update (Merger Monday Edition)
The M&A smoke turned into fire as we had two deals to start the week. This was supposed to be the slow Monday of what will be a busy week with earnings but we started off strong with two large deals. I will focus on these deals and there implications for the companies and the […]
January 19 Biotech Update
The M&A smoke in the sector is coming quick but it remains to be seen if this is just smoke or whether there is fire beneath. After a clearly disappointing 2017 and 2018 JPM, it is hard to imagine that there is not real fire given the needs of large bio and pharma to rebuild […]
January 18 Biotech Update
We had a little ice storm down here that has shut the town down for a couple days (I snuck into the office today), so I missed some interesting news. I will focus on the M&A as there are a couple of aspects that make it interesting. 1. Reports were that CELG was in negotiations […]
January 16 Biotech Update
Some interesting news to start the week. I suspect it will be good enough to help the sector as it was a little surprising and definitely early. We have still not seen the massive uptick in secondaries (a couple are happening) but that is likely only a matter of time and will likely mark the […]
January 12 Biotech Update
Assuming nothing crazy happens, the price action has been much better than I would have expected given the headline news. What we do not know if what management said to the buyside at the thousands of meetings that occurred around the conference but clearly there is more interest in the sector despite the lack of […]
January 11 Biotech Update
While we still have two trading days left this week, it looks like we will end up with a decent performance for the sector. Given the lack of news at JPM, this appears to be a win (assuming it continues) and seems to support the argument that the Monday selling was fast money getting out […]
January 10 Biotech Update
The sector did better yesterday, which seems consistent with the story that long only funds came in to buy the dip Monday. That being said, it is only one day of confirmation and there week has some time to go. There has still not be a lot of news and believe that if we end […]
January 9 Biotech Update
While yesterday was not a good day for the sector, it certainly could have been worse. The commentary out of the trading desks was that the early selling was hedge funds (fast money) who were positioned long expecting more M&A and then the modest recovery was long only funds coming in to position for a […]
January 8 biotech update
This is not a good start to JPM if this is the best the sector can do in terms of fundamental news. Unless news picks up, I would count it as a win if we end the week flat. It is not that there is particularly bad news but the expectations heading into JPM are […]
January 5 Biotech Update
JPM is just about here and traders are suddenly turning anxious. The days leading up to the meeting have gone without a big splash deal and doubts are starting to creep into investors about the potential that JPM falls flat without a major catalyst. There is still plenty of time but that is a real […]
January 4 Biotech Update
Today we are seeing a little consolidation for the sector after a solid start to the year. A real strong sentiment signal would be the sector overcoming this early morning selling to end the day green but even if we stay red it is not that big of a worry after the past couple days. […]
January 3 Biotech Update
Yesterday had a nice start to the year, which seemed to be part of a broader rotation in the nasdaq. There was some “news” that I want to highlight but the bulk of today will be another non-consensus 2018 idea. 1. The FAERS released an update to its database of adverse events reports and it […]
January 2 Biotech Update
Welcome to the New Year full of hopes and questions. In the lead up to JPM (and likely a slow build up in news as companies try to take the spotlight earlier and earlier every year), I will spend the week on broad 2018 themes and thoughts. Of course, if news happens I will focus […]
