We had the Syrian strikes over the weekend and for all intents and purposes it was typically political theater, which makes it enough for all sides to declare victory and move on. Perhaps there will be further consequences in the future but for now it is unlikely to be a significant macro worry for the […]
April 13 Biotech Update
It is the calm before the storm and I hopefully mean the calm before the AACR and earnings season. We are not quite out of the woods yet on Syria but I think we are close. UN inspectors should be arriving Saturday to test for chemical weapons and I doubt the US would launch an […]
April 12 Biotech Update
I am still convinced that the biggest macro risk for the market remains Syria. While there remains a chance that there is ultimately no attack, it seems that the past couple days has been a buildup of assets around Syria to allow for a more robust campaign. The final decision has not been made but […]
April 11 Biotech Update
Yesterday we were higher so obviously the whiplash has to continue with a red day today. The proximate cause of the weakness is concerns over Syria with Trump’s early morning taunt of Russia. I am not sure how it will play out during the day but this could keep a lid on the market and […]
April 10 Biotech Update
I am rushed this morning but I wanted to put out a quick note. The market is still volatile with the Cohen search yesterday sending the market down and the potential relaxation of the trade war sending the markets higher. I want to highlight a third macro issue and that is Syria. It is a […]
April 9 Biotech Update
I picked the wrong day to be out of the office. I thought the news will be in a lull before AACR picked up later this week. I guess I was wrong (on multiple fronts). The trading leading into AACR and during AACR will be key to the sector getting a more sustained move higher. […]
April 5 Biotech Update
The sector finally got its bounce and took some of the beaten down large caps with it. The sector (and market more generally) needs to follow through on this move and I do not mean a couple more hours but days of consolidation. A little back filling is fine but we cannot have another one […]
April 4 Biotech Update
The market is a volatility machine. We went so long without any real volatility and now all we have a whiplash moves. In periods of these, the goal is to trade less (at least for those with a longer term view). Let the valuations come to you and do not worry about the swings. It […]
April 2 Biotech Update
Thursday was not a bad follow through for the sector. I am still not convinced that we are out of the forest quite yet but we are at least further away from the abyss that was staring at the sector earlier last week. This week looks to be quiet to start as there is not […]
March 29 Biotech Update
It has certainly been an interesting couple of days. It looked like the sector was toast Tuesday and then we end up not getting the follow through selling yesterday. Despite all of the whiplash trading, there really has not been a lot of net movement higher or lower. What I do find a little interesting […]
March 27 Biotech Update
We seemingly got our bounce yesterday. It was touch and go a little in the afternoon but the market ended strong. While the trading might simply be a reflection of a higher volatility market, it did not feel like a healthy market. This still feels like we could be trading in the respite before another […]
March 26 Biotech Update
The market is going to bounce today and there are a number or proximate reasons. It could be the Stormy bottom. A dead cat, oversold bounce. A “maybe there will not be a trade war” bounce. Maybe a little of each or none of them. Bottoms on Fridays are a little rare, so the gap […]
March 23 Biotech Update
It seems like the market does not like 19th century economic policies, although I think it is likely more than simply the tariffs. The market has risen despite numerous political risks and now it seems to be more accurately reflecting the risks that arose the past 18 months. So it is not just the tariffs, […]
March 22 Biotech Update
Sector is down, although it is not clear if that is the sector or the prospects of a trade war with China that is bringing down the whole market. Between trade wars, the hawkish fed, and other potential macro issues, it seems that we might be entering into another period of macro trades affecting sector […]
March 21 Biotech Update
You would think the sector would have given us some more clarity by now but it still seems on the verge of breaking out or breaking down. The XBI could have put in a double top or is setting up a cup and handle pattern. Sentiment is not great as the reaction to Trump’s talk […]
March 19 Biotech Update
The sector continues to struggle a little as we have a lack of leadership and the old leaders are faltering. This morning does not dissuade from this analysis but it is early and the broader market is weak as well. In any case, this week should provide enough data to know whether or not another […]
March 16 Biotech Update
The sector did not really have an encouraging day yesterday. Instead of broadening out the rally, the previous leaders slipped and nothing picked up the slack. There was a chance for the large caps to move the rally forward but they did not do so. Of course, no one should worry too much about a […]
March 15 Biotech Update
We might be seeing a little of the broadening rally that I talked about as the XBI seems to be modestly underperforming the IBB the past couple days. The move in the sector was mainly concentrated in the XBI (more heavily weighted towards the SMID) versus the IBB (more heavily weighted towards the large caps) […]
March 14 Biotech Update
The trend is your friend barring anything new in the sector. It seems like we at least want to test recent highs if not break through them, although the sector is at an odd position with both seemingly significantly over valued and undervalued stocks at the same time. This actually gives a nice tell for […]
March 12 Biotech Update
An interesting start to the week thanks to the weekend news. I thought there would be a little more price action after the news but it is still early and perhaps this just signals how far PCSK9 has moved from investor interest. In any case, there are some interesting pin actions from the news. 1. […]
