We are getting what I suspect is a dead cat bounce after the trouncing yesterday. The recent lows need to hold but there really seems to be nothing in terms of sentiment to indicate that those lows will hold. We seem back in the scenario where early green opens fade during the day and turn […]
November 12 Biotech Update
A rough start to the week. The market just feels heavy and looks like it wants to break through the recent lows. It looked for a little like it wanted break from the downtrend and form a new channel higher but the week is not starting off like that is in the cards. Another leg […]
November 8 Biotech Update
Not a lot going on but there are a couple of quick points I want to make today. 1. AKAO is having the completely predictable slow antibiotic launch. You will never see these launch like anti-virals or oncology drugs. Simply being approved does not mean they will be used as hospitals have to review it […]
November 7 Biotech Update
The midterm elections are over and now we have a couple hour break before the 2020 presidential campaigning begins. The split congress is likely positive for the markets as they tend to favor gridlock over one party rule but I think any bounce or sell-off is not going to be lasting or meaningful as the […]
November 6 Biotech Update
While there are certainly other things happening in the market, I want to focus today on ONCS as I think there are important take aways not only about the data but also more broadly. 1. Looking at the data and presentation, it looks in-line with my expectations. I noted going in that they were likely […]
November 5 Biotech Update
We are entering the heart of the SMID earning season and while it could have an impact on the individual stock, it usually does not have major impacts more broadly. It is once again a quite start to the week and even macro it seems pretty staid. This is nice in that it will provide […]
November 1 Biotech Update
Yesterday I wondered if the sector was bottoming and evidence is building that we are bottoming. We still need to string some green days together and see stocks react positively to good news (and hold those gains). I certainly would not bet the farm that the bottom is in but it is more encouraging and […]
October 31 Biotech Update
Is the sector starting to bottom? It certainly does not feel like it as every gain is followed by more selling. No move higher seems to have any staying power. Positive starts to the day are sold by the end of the day. All that being said bottom and tops looks so clear in hindsight […]
October 29 Biotech Update
Surprisingly not any M&A (I say sarcastically). It is interesting, however, that there are some partnership deals and this makes me wonder if that is the new M&A. It is a relatively cheap way to get access to a particular asset with relatively lower risk especially if most of the biobucks are commercial. It is […]
October 25 Biotech Update
Yesterday was brutal and there is really little to say about it as we are clearly in the middle of a massive correction if not outright bear market. I suspect that we are closer to the end than the beginning but that does not mean we could not see another 10% lower from these levels […]
October23 Biotech Update
It is unfortunate that the earnings weeks comes as the market seems to want to collapse. Industrial earnings are finally seeing the impact of the trade policies and now apparently it is a biotech issue. It is hard to see how the sector would avoid being pulled into a larger market sell-off regardless of the […]
October 22 Biotech Update
This should not be week of no news as we have the ESMO data to digest as well as a number of large cap earnings to work through. Unless there is some massive move in the market, it is hard to imagine that the sector does not trade on the news as opposed to following […]
October 18 Biotech Update
We finally have some M&A in the sector but I am not convinced it will have a very broad effect. While it is not a small deal, the $2B or so price tag is not game changing for anyone. In addition, the top holders were overwhelmingly biotech specialists and not generalists. Clearly it will be […]
October 17 Biotech Update
Yesterday was obviously a great day for the sector with everything higher and by a lot. It is not stunning to see some pullback from that move but if there is truly a reinvigorated sector, then you would want to see this red opening reverse into a green day to turn yesterday from a one-off […]
October 15 Biotech Update
Tell me if you heard this story before. Merger Monday and nothing happens in biotech. We have essentially run out of excuses as it was the political uncertainty and then it was tax reform. Neither are issues at the moment and we still have nothing happening. Are valuations in public companies still too high? Have […]
October 12 Biotech Update
Not a lot in terms of news but certainly in terms of action. The selloff has been brutal but I think we are much closer to a bottom than many think. My question is not whether we get a nice short covering rally soon (I expect we do) but what happens after the shorts cover? […]
October 10 Biotech Update
I do not think there is much to say today outside of the obvious. The market is not looking good and we seem to be entering (or in the midst) of a broad market correction that is going to take everything down with it. Fundamentals are not going to matter in the near term. It […]
October 9 Biotech Update
It was certainly not a great start to the week and the sector really needs a turnaround Tuesday to pan out. Interestingly, the pharma and large cap bios did OK yesterday as perhaps a flight to safety trade. The IBB seems right at the bottom of its range and has the potential to find support […]
October 5 Biotech Update
Yesterday was brutal to say the least. There really was nothing to like about it. The XBI seems to have broken below its range and the IBB is rushing to the bottom end of its range. I have been talking about the XBI as the early warning index for the IBB and unless it can […]
October 2 Biotech Update
There is not a lot of news today, so I will keep it relatively quick. I am really not starting to like the way the sector is trading. The XBI continues to act like crap even as the IBB trades near the upper end of its range. If the XBI cannot rally and rally fast, […]
