The sector move seems to be losing some steam. This is not unexpected nor bad as these overbought conditions need to be reset. The real key going forward is not how much further this move can stretch higher but whether or not we can form a lower high. That will be absolutely key as a […]
January 8 Biotech Update
The sector is ripping higher the past couple days, which makes sense given the news flow. I thought the XBI could hit $80 and it did. This is an area of some resistance and the question is whether or not this momentum could actually carry it to the $85 area. Over the near term I […]
January 7 Biotech Update
This is one hell of a start for biotechs this year. M&A and good data are back. Of course, there is a bias in JPM week to present good news early, so I would be surprised to see this rate of positive news to continue all week but this is certainly a great start and […]
January 4 Biotech Update
The broader market is finally supportive of the sector and barring a reversal we should start to see a nice run up into JPM next week. At the very least I can see the XBI making it to $74 with a decent chance it break that next week and retests the $80 level. An inability […]
January 3 Biotech Update
Holy crap, BMY is buying CELG. This is one hell of a way to start the XLRN is aNew Year and JPM week. It is unfortunate for the sector that the broader markets are so weak otherwise this would likely have had a bigger positive impact. Hopefully the AAPL related weakness is fleeting and we […]
December 31 Biotech Update
The selling has been relentless but we are now seeing a nice rally/dead cat bounce. While one has to be very careful with any rally as countertrend rallies in bear markets can be face ripping, there are some nice signs for the biotech sector. While there is some reason for optimism one still has to […]
December 18 Biotech Update
It is brutal out there for bears and bulls alike. While the trend seems to be lower the market continues to have little rips higher. I still lean towards another leg lower and the XBI is sitting right above the recent lows and a break below those levels starts the waterfall down to another low. […]
December 17 Biotech Update
It really is looking like we are entering a bear market and those sharp rallies that we have seen are simply the sharp counter trend rallies one sees in bear markets. I am not completely convinced that a bear market is coming but I think we are close. As long as the economy remains out […]
December 13 Biotech Update
Not a ton of news as the year closes down. It seems like the market wants to whiplash investors as we bounce around with no clear trends. It does not matter how strong or weak a day is as it seems to have no impact on trading the next day. We should be approaching a […]
December 11 Biotech Update
The market did a lot better to start the week than I would have thought and that strength continues today. At this point, I think everyone does not really trust the market (I fall in that camp) but does that mean then that the sellers on this pop get burned? Everyone expects the move higher […]
December 7 Biotech Update
The market can always surprise and I was surprised yesterday with the sector strength. The broader market did better than I expected but the sector clearly outperformed. It is only a day but if we see continued strength today then one has to read these days as a strong signal in the near term. I […]
December 6 Biotech Update
China is back in the news and for good or ill, the sector fundamentals do not matter. Right now it is all about China and the broader market will pull the sector higher or lower. At this point with no trade deal and with the arrest of the Huawei CFO (the daughter of the CEO […]
December 4 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a good day but not as broad based as one would have hoped. Today will be telling in that the confusion over the China “trade deal” has only amplified leading to early pressure. Ideally, the sector would shrug off early weakness and build on yesterday’s strength to end the day green once again. […]
December 3 Biotech Update
It is certainly a great start to the week with generally good news from ASH, merger Monday, and easing trade tensions. If we do not get a gap and run with this news, then we are in trouble. I suspect this will be a multi-day move (or at least it should be on this news). […]
November 29 Biotech Update
We are at an interesting place for the sector. The XBI is approaching the upper end of the downtrend, which has been acting as resistance. I am not totally convinced that will be the case this time as the recent move lower did not form a lower low. That hints that we could be leaving […]
November 28 Biotech Update
Yesterday as a bad day for the sector as it was red with a positive broader market backdrop. To be fair it was a rather odd day in the sector as the large caps also grossly outperformed the SMID space, which was held down by some large losses. I am not quite willing to see […]
November 26 Biotech Update
After a nice long holiday break, I figured there might be some more news to start the week but apparently not. The sector is off to a good start but it seems macro driven in that it is simply following the broader markets higher. As long as the broader market remains positive, I suspect the […]
November 20 Biotech Update
I guess we did not get the turn around that could have been a positive sign. There is still a chance for a turnaround Tuesday as we gap lower at the open but the market feels pretty heavy at this point. There just seems to be no interest in buying and/or holding anything. On the […]
November 19 Biotech Update
This should be a relatively slow week but with ASH late breaking abstracts coming out later, it might not be completely devoid of news. There is a little more hope for the sector than the middle of last week. We have had a couple of strong days, although one could argue this has just brought […]
November 15 Biotech Update
Today is an important day for the sector. We are at very long term support (the 200 week MA) that has rarely been breached (occasionally but never in a sustained manner). At levels that should provide some support we get some partnership news that is positive for SMID (it seems like partnerships are the new […]
