The trend in the sector is moving onto more and more shaky ground. Breaking below $86.22 on the XBI (the most recent low) would end the streak of higher highs and higher lows. We still have some room but even at these levels (if we reverse) it looks like the trend is not quite as […]
April 16 Biotech Update
It was not the ideal start to the week but also not the worst. The selling from the morning opening was bad but we may have bottomed in the afternoon as there was a minor late day run. I would use yesterday’s intraday low as a key level and would get less constructive on the […]
April 15 Biotech Update
Certainly an interesting start to the week. In terms of the broader sector, I suspect that we have a positive week as we are in the area where a bounce would be expected with the current trend. If we continue to have underperformance and a negative week, then we need to start thinking more about […]
April 12 Biotech Update
The sector is certainly underperforming the broader markets and while that is frustrating, I do not see anything that is concerning. We did not get the breakout but if we bottom around $90, then we have set up another higher low. For me to really change my view, I would need to see the XBI […]
April 11th Biotech Update
We are starting to get some news (from EASL) but still nothing that appears compelling for the sector. Sure, these are going to be potentially stock moving but it appears unlikely to have a broader read through to the sector. 1. VKTX presented update data and the new information was really about safety. The drug […]
April 10th Biotech Update
Another slow day with the sector so far unable to do anything other than drift lower. I still see nothing to indicate a broader issue with the sector and this is simply a no news drift than anything else. We would really need to break below $86 on the XBI to change the picture at […]
April 9 Biotech Update
A pretty slow start to the week. The sector underperformed yesterday and is red today but doing a little better than the broader market. We are at an interesting spot. It is not clear whether we broke through the upper end of a range last week or whether we have hit resistance and will reverse […]
April 5 Biotech Update
Really not much happening in the sector, so I will keep this relatively quick. I think if we can close above $93 on the XBI it bodes well for next week but it would take a nice move today. I do not think we are anywhere close to breaking down so either we have a […]
April 3 Biotech Update
The XBI is breaking above the top end of the narrowing range, which is a strong signal of an upside breakout but it needs to build off of this move. A little break followed by churning and/or closing the day under the breakout level is not great. All that being said the table is being […]
April 2nd Biotech Update
The sector seems to be setting up for a breakout(down). Since the gap higher in late February, it looks like we are getting higher lows and lower highs. The range is narrowing and we should soon be breaking out of the narrowing range and that is going to generate the next significant move. I still […]
March 28 Biotech Update
Yesterday was not a great day for the sector but we seem to be bouncing back today. It appears that the next move will not be easy in that this churn and volatility is going to be difficult to play. I still think we go with the trend (which is higher) and ignore the near […]
March 27 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a nice little rally in the sector, which given the sharp pullback was not completely unexpected. The more interesting question is whether that rally can be built upon over the next couple days. The sentiment from Friday and Monday was so negative that many are likely expecting more selling. That is certainly possible […]
March 26 Biotech Update
The sector has had a nice sharp pullback that has challenged sentiment a little. I was a little surprised about how quickly sentiment got negative yesterday as we have had a pretty solid move higher. It seems that sentiment is a little more fragile under the surface than I thought. In some ways that is […]
March 21 Biotech Update
This will certainly be a bad day for the large cap but I would not be surprised to see the XBI outperform if not eventually turn green as M&A fever hits the space. The BIIB failure is large and important for a number of reasons, which I will go through today. 1. While many did […]
March 19th Biotech Update
The XBI seems to be churning early this week and while we did not get the run that was possible, it is not bad to sit at these levels for a little to consolidate. We have been setting higher lows and look to be in the process of setting a higher high and that should […]
March 14 (Pi day) biotech update
A nice late day rally yesterday was a good sign. That was what I was waiting for after a morning of listless direction. It is looking more and more likely that the sector wants to test the recent high in the mid $93s in relative short order. Given the strength it would not stun me […]
March 13 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a good day for the sector and we are right back to what could be some resistance on the XBI at $90. There was some good news coming out that sort of stoked the move and it will be interesting to see if we pause today or extend. Clearly we are pausing in […]
March 12 Biotech Update
I am finally back and the sector appears to have pulled back a little. I do not see this a particularly bad pull back as it looks to have closed a gap and bounced off of it. In my mind, it appears to be setting up as a successful test of the recent breakout assuming […]
February 28th Biotech Update
The sector continues to hang out at these levels and my sense is that the longer we wait to go, the more likely we consolidate the move higher. I do find it a little odd that we have not seen a more clear move (up or down) but it likely means that this level will […]
February 27 Biotech Update
We still have not gapped and went, so I would think that possibility is lowering but I would not completely discount it. We have some positive news today in the SMID space that could trigger another round of buying but time is running out for the go part of the gap and go. 1. SRPT […]
