Nothing has really changed. Oddly the sector is really underperforming the market today at the start, which is not good but at least we are seeing an end to the tight correlations. I still think everything is going to move with news on the Mexican tariffs. If they go into effect, then everything goes down. […]
June 4 Biotech Update
Are we bouncing or starting a new trend higher? Both are plausible explanations for the recent move as the selling has been pretty consistent and so a dead cat bounce was at least due. The sector outperformed yesterday, although it is modestly underperforming today. I still think we are in a broader macro driven market […]
June 3 Biotech Update
Guess what? The macro continues to dominate but it might actually work for us this week. If Mexico can work out a deal with the US, then the market is set to move a lot higher. If not, then expect more downside. Given the amount of disruption that the tariffs would cause, I suspect a […]
May 31 Biotech Update
Macro, Macro, Macro. No this is not a complete repeat of yesterday but it sure is looking like one. It would be really nice to have at least some time without new macro concerns but you trade the market you have not the market you want to have. At the very least we have ASCO […]
May 30 Biotech Update
Macro, Macro, Macro. I am sort of getting sick of it but at least it is working to the upside today (at least for now). Hopefully with ASCO coming this weekend the sector can break out of this tight correlation with the broader market but that remains to be seen. Not a lot of news […]
May 29 Biotech Update
So I thought we were moving out of a macro dominated market but apparently spoke too soon. While China and Iran seem to be less and less in the headlines, larger macro concerns over the economy seem to be replacing them as the macro concern. The market appears in a precarious position and while we […]
May 28 Biotech Update
So a relatively slow start to the week. I suspect many hoped for a buyout or two after the long weekend but no such luck. We do have a potential run up into ASCO next week as a catalyst, although it seems at this point that the majority of presentations will be marginal updates as […]
May 21st Biotech Update
And today we are green with the rest of the market. There is some biotech news but at this point the sector is trading simply as a slightly higher beta version of the general market (it is a little more red on down days and a little more green on up days). On the positive […]
May 20 Biotech Update
China and trade seemed to be fading into the background potentially setting this week up for a decline of the highly correlated macro markets but Iran and the Middle East have stepped into the void. While this could be a major issue for the markets, it is also one that could fade a lot quicker […]
May 17th Biotech Update
We remain in a macro driven market even as the ASCO abstracts dropped this week. There were some interesting data that came out of the abstracts but certainly nothing so compelling to move the sector especially against this macro backdrop. At some point, the China trade wars issue will be priced into the market and […]
May 15th Biotech Update
Well, yesterday ending up being a good day with the XBI eventually following the individual stocks but this continues to be a highly correlated macro market. The broader market seems to be following a clearly defined downward channel (which it hit the upper limit yesterday) and given that the broad market is driving everything until […]
May 14 Biotech Update
I am not sure who had a more difficult day yesterday. You all for having to watch another market meltdown over China fears (and others) or me who had to help chaperone a middle school trip to New Orleans. In any case, we have all survived and the market seems to be bouncing this morning. […]
May 9 Biotech Update
Macro seems to once again dominate the trading with both Iran and China increasing the risk and both North Korea and Venezuela just below the surface. The odds remain that we muddle through these crises but one cannot ignore the risks that these present especially because the Iran and China situations could potentially be very […]
May 7th Biotech Update
A good day for the sector despite a relatively bad day for the market. This is a rare occurrence for the sector to outperform (at least recently). One day does not make a trend but it was certainly encouraging to see the sector do well and if the market continues to slide it is unlikely […]
May 3 Biotech Update
The sector really is trading without a clear trend. Nothing that has happened this week has created a new trend but the range is narrowing, so I expect next week to provide more clarity as to the next move in the sector. A break below the lows this week likely triggers another leg lower otherwise […]
May 1 Biotech Update
The sector continues to lag. What I see as a little odd is that pharma appears to be outperforming biotech. If Medicare for All was going to collapse the US drug market, why would pharma be immune and be doing well? It is an odd disconnect and speaks to something else going on in the […]
April 30 Biotech Update
The sector remains in a rut. The market is doing well with the bio-pharma the clear laggard. While the mania over the medicare for all worry seems to have abated, the sector clearly did not bounce back. It stopped the free fall but we are still well below the pre-mania levels. So what can we […]
April 25th Biotech Update
Yesterday really ended up offering no real direction. We could not quite rally but we also did not quite collapse. Everything that I talked about yesterday about the trading of the sector also applies today given the lack of clarity. I do think it is telling that these large cap earnings are basically being greeted […]
April 24th Biotech Update
Yesterday was good but not a good start to today. We were certainly due for a bounce and we should be looking for signs as to the next move. The upward trend has been broken but we have yet to clearly establish what the trend will be (higher or lower) or whether we will be […]
April 23 Biotech Update
The sector has been struggling to say the least and when last I wrote, it was not clear to me the underlying cause, it is clear now (I will discuss below). We are obviously oversold in the short term and while we should bounce and recover as there is little fundamentally wrong with the sector, […]
