Iran responded and it went about as well as we could have hoped. The administration has a chance to de-escalate today and given the limited damage done with the attack last night, it should be a day of slowly decreasing tensions. Of course, what should happen and what actually happens can be different. I would […]
January 7 Biotech Update
We remain in the calm before the storm (perhaps both macro and in terms of JPM). I still think the market is underestimating possible Iranian responses and seems to be slightly exhaling in that nothing has happened yet. I too have felt that relaxation but I still cannot believe that Iran would allow the assassination […]
January 6 Biotech Update
I am glad to be back and will be in my usual daily update routine for the foreseeable future. I did not miss a ton of news but we certainly will have some soon enough with JPM next week. Before I left the sector was in a clear uptrend that was unbroken and I noted […]
December 18th Biotech Update
Another slow news day or at least slow trading day. I think the market continues to drift and perhaps we get a large small volume move but markets near yearly highs tend to make marginal new highs. Of course, the marginal new highs are occasionally followed by large moves lower. As such, it might make […]
December 17th Biotech Update
It seems like we are getting into the slow part of the holiday season. News is slowing down as is the trading volume. I suspect we get less and less news as it gets held for JPM (if possible). It would not necessarily be bad for the sector to churn at these levels to build […]
December 16 Biotech Update
We have a decent news morning but I want to focus on three and can do so with a Western theme: the good, the bad, and the ugly. 1. The good: Clearly this is AMRN. We got an early Christmas present with an expanded label. They did not get the primary prevention but also seemed […]
December 13 Biotech Update
There is some news today so I will do a quick Friday note. 1. ATNX had their data and it showed a statistically significant OS improvement. We are getting a little sell the news for a couple of reasons. First, the stock had a good run into these data. Second, the data are not perfect. […]
December 11 Biotech Update
Today will be interesting in whether or not we can break into new highs for the week. It looked like Monday was going to trigger a breakout and run but that sort of fizzled. Yesterday was a good day and so today will be interesting to see if we can push those highs seen on […]
December 10 Biotech Update
It seems like the sector might breakout and run yesterday morning but it came back to reality in the afternoon. While it would have been nice to see a run, the pullback does not change the trend. Perhaps we will now see a little weakness and pullback to higher lows (as had been the case) […]
December 9th Biotech Update
We have our answer as to the strength of the trend. Positive data are being rewarded (so far) and the perfect storm continues for the sector with not only good data but more M&A. So not only do we need to think about the trend but also whether this is a major breakout as the […]
December 4th Biotech Update
The sector struggled a little and the momentum seems to have paused but we remain squarely within the uptrend. Of course, yesterday saw a ton of secondaries (the most I have seen in a day in a long time) and these tend to occur near the top of a range and not the bottom. It […]
December 3rd Biotech Update
The broader market backdrop is not nearly as positive with some China fears creeping into the market but the sector remains strong. I still think the stock reactions to ASH data this weekend will go a long way in signaling expectations and whether they have become extended. So for me I will be watching not […]
December 2nd Biotech Update
The sector remains strong and we have ASH coming so we could see a run in some names this week. Given the recent strength and the potential run-up (uptrends are prime run-up candidates), I would not be surprised to see a sell the news reaction on ASH data. Expectations are growing with the valuations and […]
November 26 Biotech Update
The trend is your friend and while I expected a news to slow we got an unanticipated surprise. Positive news continues to hit the sector and the trend continues higher. I will never call the end of the trend until it confirmed but we have had a great move and macro has been pretty supportive […]
November 25th Biotech Update
If it were not for some M&A this would be a quiet start to the week. I suspect that in the end it will be pretty low on fundamental news given the holiday week but we are off to a good start. This should provide even more support to the trend and the broken record […]
November 20th Biotech Update
The trend is our friend and it seems like the XBI wants to get to $90, although any price between now and then could see the pause. The worry would not be if we pause and pullback but to make sure that the pullback puts in a higher low. I am going to be a […]
November 19th Biotech Update
The leak is finally fixed. It only took six hours yesterday and an inadvertent flooding of the laundry room but it is done. Now I need to get the dry wall fixed before being completely done but some progress. Speaking of progress, the sector continues within its trend. It has been grinding higher marking higher […]
November 13 Biotech Update
All three SMIDs this week had positive news although only AMRN really took off on it. Of course, AMRN had the smallest positive move into the week and probably had the highest amount of doubts over the catalyst, so it sort of makes sense. I want to spend today going back over the other two […]
November 12th Biotech Update
I know the actual AdCom is in a couple of days but the briefing docs release today gave us the final move for this weekly trifecta. This could also be a good day for the sector if we can break above the recent highs, which should trigger another leg higher in the trend. The fundamentals […]
November 11 Biotech Update
This is not necessarily a big week for the sector (the trend still seems in intact) but certainly some big SMID catalyst for stocks that I follow. In fact, there will be a trifecta of news (two of which already happened) that could be meaningful. So let us dive into what had happened. 1. PIRS […]
