The sector seems to be in decision mode. It is hanging right around the recent highs and it is almost as if the market is trying to make up its mind as to whether or not it wants to bust through the recent highs. I doubt we simply hang at these levels for long. A […]
February 10 Biotech Update
Last Monday we were following a weak end to the previous week and I expected that to continue early in the week but instead we had a pretty strong rally. Last Friday was another weak day and so one would expect follow through but given last Monday, perhaps not. I am still convinced that the […]
February 7th Biotech Update
The sector seems to be in an odd spot. Fundamentals look fine and the trading is not awful but the chart looks precarious. We might have 3 lower highs and 3 lower lows right now. It almost looks like a broadening top but that usually sees higher highs as well as lower lowers. The chart […]
February 5 Biotech Update
So the sell off last week seemed like the market looking for news to sell off on and today it seems the opposite. Corona virus fears continue to decline and we see a market rally and even oil is rallying today. I think market expectations are now that the epidemic will continue to grow in […]
February 4 Biotech Update
The market and sector have done much better this week than I expected. It is time to revisit my views as despite the many headwinds and issues that continue to betwixt the global economy the market is the market. One cannot ignore the strength and fight the windmill. I still see a lot of headwinds […]
February 3 Biotech Update
The market is off to a good start this morning but I suspect we fade. The old saying goes that markets never bottom on Fridays and typically when you have a big selloffs on Friday and a bounce Monday morning, the bounce ultimately fades and fails. We will see. We still have some macro that […]
January 31 Biotech Update
The market seems on edge. It looks like people want to sell but have been so trained to be the dips that it is almost like muscle memory at this point. This sets up for a very quick and severe drop if it happens. In other words, if the market suddenly thinks this dip will […]
January 29 Biotech Update
The sector and market seem to be trying to make a decision. There was a decent selloff and now the bounce. Is the bounce just resetting the short term oversold conditions for another leg lower or has the selloff provided the dip that the longer term trend higher needed. I am not sure either way […]
January 28 Biotech Update
The sector bounced right where you would expect, which is a positive sign. I am still not convinced that it is setting up well for the near term but you have to respect that it bounced right where support should have existed. This actually sets up for some clarity going forward. If those lows are […]
January 27 Biotech Update
We are heading into a perfect storm for weakness, so stay nimble and/or hedged. The sector has had a nice run and was overbought. We had an uneventful JPM and are set for a series of post-JPM secondaries. The broader market is going to be weak given growing pandemic fears (and the real impact it […]
January 24 Biotech Update
Thanks to everyone who was on the stream yesterday and those that watched afterwards. Not much has really changed between now and then. The sector appears relatively weak but perhaps more range bound than anything else. I would look at the $91.50 or so level on the XBI as the bottom of the range. I […]
January 22 Biotech Update
I think the trading context for the near term is basically set. We have a potential macro scare with the Wuhan coronavirus, earnings, and the sector trading just below breakout levels. Lurking in the background is the democratic primaries, which could influence trading (Sanders and Warren bad for biotech, others good for biotech—or that is […]
January 21 Biotech Update
A long weekend and we start the week like JPM with little to now news. If you stare at the chart closely enough and squint your eyes, we might be setting up a new uptrend with higher lows and higher highs assuming we break above the highs of last week. I would not bet the […]
January 17 Biotech Update
I suspect that the sector is setting up for a run at $100 on the XBI if not breaking above it. People expecting a JPM selloff on the lack of news (me included) were wrong and now the fear of missing out (FOMO) of a breakout to new highs might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The […]
January 16 Biotech Video Update
So today I did a chat on Twitch. If you go to the page there should be a video recording that you can watch. https://www.twitch.tv/chimeraresearch Rest assured quality will improve over time but I sort of like the ability to talk through the issues. Let me know if you have any questions or comments. I […]
January 15th Biotech Update
The snorefest that is JPM continues with no deals and not particularly meaningful company updates. The sector was understandably weak yesterday morning but it had a pretty nice reversal during the day. I am honestly surprised at the strength of the sector given the lack of news. While perhaps strength is not the correct word […]
January 14 Biotech Update
It is all but confirmed that this is going to be the worse JPM in my memory on the deal front. I knew without CELG and AGN you had fewer companies to be buyers but this is still oddly weak for the remaining large caps. I honestly think the sector is holding up better than […]
January 13 Biotech Update
It looks like JPM is going to be a dud. The only deal announced so far with the smallish LLY deal for DERM last week. This has to be one of the weakest news JPM I remember. Add the lack of news with Bernie Sanders recent spike in the political polls and this does not […]
January 10th Biotech Update
We are now ramping up the news with the peak coming Monday. Not many deals announced so far and I suspect we need more for us to get a decent rally next week but it is still early in the JPM news cycle. That being said if Monday morning arrives without more deals (and larger […]
January 9th Biotech Update
I think macro is officially in the background for now. It seems clear the US will not respond and most encouraging is that the US noted that they will not necessarily equate the Iranian proxies with Iran. In other words, everyone is de-escalating. This is not over as economic sanctions remain and that is part […]
