May 15th Biotech Update

I figured the sector was hoping for a merger Monday to really continue the push from Friday.  Instead we got a Moderna Monday that is pushing not just the sector but the market.  There is really not much more news that I can tell but the ultimately it looks like the old resistance level on […]

May 15th Biotech Update

It seems a fight/indecision in the sector right now.  It remains right at the breakout level unable to move higher to confirm the breakout or move lower to reinforce the level as resistance.  It still seems to be doing modestly better than the broader markets but there seems clear indecision at this level and at […]

May 14th Biotech Update

So we are in the pullback to the breakout levels and the sector has some decision making to do.  Either this level holds and we confirm the breakout or we make our way lower and the “breakout” looks like a blow off top.  A breakdown would not be a great signal (obviously) but this would […]

May 13th Biotech Update

Are we heading to the pullback that confirms the breakout?  Perhaps but we could also be in the frustrating the bears phase of the move.  Remember that the most common outcome of a market that makes a new all time high is to have another day that makes a marginal new high.  In other words, […]

May 12th Biotech Update

We had our breakout and run yesterday and while there is little follow through today, I suspect that we get a continuation.  It appears that the breakout is happening but the confirmation still needs to occur.  The final signal would be to test the old resistance level with a selloff and to rally off the […]

May 11th Biotech Update

We were able to break above resistance last Friday but could not quite close above it and did not get the run on the breakout.  This morning the sector is slightly weak as is the general market.  It will be a real test of the sector as there is little news to drive it higher […]

May 8th Biotech Update

We keep smacking our heads against the resistance above and the more times we hit it the better the chance it breaks.   The sector news has been positive and the broader market is still grinding higher, so the broader fundamentals appear supportive of a break.  The flip side is that if we cannot breakout within […]

May 7th Biotech Update

Earnings continue and the themes are basically the same.  They are generally good if not better than expectations but they remain cautious for the rest of the year. The sector is certainly rebounding from the selling late last week but there seems to be this odd late day selling despite strength during most of the […]

May 5th Biotech Update

So it is looking like the late last week selling was a pause that refreshes and the demand for the sector continues.  We still likely have a wall of resistance at $100 on the XBI, so it is not stunning that we paused when we reached that level.  A sustained move above that level would […]

May the Force Be With Biotech Update

The trend is you friend until it is not anymore.  We had a nice strong uptrend that appears to have broken.  This obviously does not mean that we are moving to the low but that the next direction is not precisely clear.  We needed to digest that recent move as it was almost straight up […]

May 1st Biotech Update

We finally get two days in a row of the same move but unfortunately it is down.  This is not completely surprising as it is completely reasonable that the sharp move higher in the market needs to pause and/or retrench a little.  Of course, the tension and worry will be whether or not this is […]

April 30th Biotech (and MLP) Update

We continue with a back and forth week.  I think we have alternated up and down days this entire week.  This continues day and clearly we have a week of indecision.  This is not necessarily bullish.  Yes, it is bullish to basically digest a move higher with sideways action but the news this week has […]

April 29th Biotech Update

Yesterday was a retracement day and seemed almost like a rotation out of what was working (biotech) into lagging sectors (banking).  Given the strength in the sector it should be able to handle the retracement before continuing the move higher.  The only worry is the XBI compared to the IBB.  The IBB had made new […]

April 27th Biotech Update

A new week and it is off to a good start.  One debate I often have with myself is whether or not the bottom is in.  It is an important question but really unknowable at this point.  If HCQ or remdisivr or some other drug comes out as a reasonable treatment for COVID between now […]

April 24th Biotech (and MLP) Update

It seems like the market is slowly getting back to some sort of normalcy.  The daily massive moves are slowly becoming more measured moves.  Yes, volatility is still elevated and we still get large moves but the days of daily 5%-10% moves higher or lower with even larger swings seems to be slowly moving into […]

April 23 Biotech (and MLP) Update

Good news for investors.  Stocks have never been red when weekly jobless claims were over 3 million and with the 4+ million claims this week, we should be fine.  Clearly we are in abnormal times but simply looking the at the price action and ignoring the broader economic fundamentals, the market is strong.  That seems […]

April 20th Biotech (and MLP) Update

So it looked like last week finally decided the next move would be higher but this morning we start with some weakness.  I would not be surprised, however, to see the market to reverse during the day.  I saw an analysis that showed almost all of the downside on the selloff the past couple months […]

April 16th Biotech Update

It is a week of indecision despite having thought it would be a week of decision.  It happens I guess but we are whiplashing higher and lower but, honestly, if I ignored the larger macro context and just looked at the XBI the chart the past couple weeks, it seems clearly in an uptrend.  We […]