Is this the week of decision? Given that we are much closer to the downside break than upside, if we do get a decision this week it is likely negative. As such, I think the two most likely scenarios this week are either a downside breakdown or a bounce from these lower levels and move […]
April 9th Biotech Update
Nothing is changing for the sector are we started the week in the middle of two key levels and are basically ending the week within the range and really with no more clarity on where the sector may go than when we started. We have AACR starting today but I doubt that will have any […]
April 8th Biotech Update
I spent some time this morning looking for something interesting to talk about and there really is not much. The sector remains in a sort of zone of indecision and that has not changed. We were a little closer to the downside level with some negative sentiment but we are higher today and I am […]
April 7th Biotech Update
We remain mired in the middle with nothing really to signal the ultimate resolution of this situation. I would simply remain focused on the fundamentals of companies and simply be aware that the broader sector will at some point clarify the next move. I would be ready for a move higher or lower as I […]
April 5th Biotech Update
While it is possible that this week is decision week for the sector, I am not convinced that it has to be. There is room above and below for it to tread water and not signal its next big move. I see the $150 and $125 levels as the key ones to watch and the […]
April 1st Biotech (and MLP) Update
The market certainly feels like it is in a better place and perhaps that is true for the broader market but I still do not see us out of the woods for the sector. Despite a good bounce the past couple of days we are still in what could be a downtrend and until we […]
March 31st Biotech Update
We are in an interesting spot. Yesterday started bad but we reversed higher and that continued today. It feels better with this bounce having a nice follow through. What is interesting is that we made a lower low despite the reversal., so in reality we seem to have established a downtrend even though we had […]
March 29th Biotech Update
It seems like there is a lot of talk about a major Asian hedge fund blowing up causing forced liquidation and market dislocations. While it does not seem to be the case that this involves a lot of biotech companies, it does appear tech related and anything this massive will have ripples throughout the market. […]
March 26th Biotech (and MLP) Update
Yesterday turned out better than I expected. It was a nice reversal but we have seen this story before and the sector simply has not been able to build off of these moves. So I had been looking to see if the sector set a higher low and higher high to signal a new bullish […]
March 25th Biotech Update
It is never easy, I guess. It is always darkest before the dawn. I am sure there are other phrases that could apply to the market at this point but the fact is that the sector is clearly struggling. We had the chance to set a higher high and perhaps get some momentum but that […]
March 24th Biotech Update
You probably got the sense that I was leaning towards the sector eventually signaling a new trend higher at some point. Yesterday did not provide any comfort of confirmation of that lean. I would not argue that yesterday indicates that we are going to break into new lows but it definitely raises that possibility. It […]
March 22nd Biotech Update
A more rigorous FDA. Rising interest rates. Rising COVID cases in the EU. Lack of M&A. A lot of clinical trial failures. These are the list (probably not comprehensive) of the risks that have been used to explain the selloff in the sector. None of these have gone away and yet we still have the […]
March 19th Biotech (and Energy) Update
Yesterday clearly did not instill a ton of confidence. That being said we did not break any lows so the path of setting a higher low and establishing a new move higher is still possible. The difference is that we are now closer to taking out the lows, which is not a comfortable position (especially […]
March 18th Biotech Update
Is the recent price action in the sector bullish or bearish? It is really difficult to call it at this point. It is completely consistent with a bull market for a sector to pullback and consolidate a move higher. That being said the sector has conditioned us over the past month or so that pullbacks […]
March 17th Biotech Update
What is going on with the sector? It seemed like everything was going well and then the bottom dropped out. Given the recent history with what seemed like a month of pure selling I suspect that it feels like we are set for another big move down. Obviously that is possible and we need to […]
March 15 Biotech Update
Well, we have a chance this week to reverse (or continue the reversal) and send a strong signal that the bottom is in. I suspect we cannot do that unless the NASDAQ has also bottomed, which probably means the broader market is going higher. There continues to be little thesis changing news so we will […]
March 12 Biotech (and Energy) Update
I think the only thing we can say with confidence is that we are in the middle of process as there is not clear uptrend, downtrend or bottom. This makes for frustrating moves for both bears and bulls as what looks good for your view on day is not another day (in fact it seems […]
March 8th Biotech Update
I am not sure if the sector is trading on fundamentals anymore. I do not mean that it is over- or under- valued but that the trading has been so extreme that I am not sure news matters. Of course, as we attempt to rather this week starts with no M&A and a negative trial […]
March 4th Biotech (and MLP) Update
So I think it was a week ago or so that I said that $140 was very likely and then these bounces made it perhaps a little less clear, yesterday made it clear. The question now is whether or not that level will hold. Everything is setting up for a bounce. We had a large […]
March 3rd Biotech (and Energy) Update
The market has been rough. Not in that we have seen a ton of downside but more in terms of the whiplash we have seen. One day looks like a breakdown and the next looks like a breakout. I do not see any clear trend right now and until the market signals by moving out […]
