The sector has been doing pretty well the past couple of days and that is in light of the broader market being pretty bad. That could be good sign and ideally we need to see that outperformance to continue on days in which the broader market is green. Today could be the day to test […]
May 12th Biotech Update
Good news and bad news. The sector broke its recent lows yesterday- bad news. It reversed and ended green- good news. I think the clear downtrend is not as clear but I also do not think we are in a good spot. The $120 level should be some decent support but it seems best case […]
May 10th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week and not a lot of reasons to explain it. There is really no big news out this morning and perhaps that is part of the issue. With the narrative and sentiment already negative a day without anything positive is going to generally be weak. The big earnings have […]
May 7th Biotech (and MLP) Update
We broke to new lows so how far will we fall? That is the natural question but it actually looks like we hit what could be pretty strong support. So is it possible that we actually bounce as opposed to collapse? If you look at the previous lower lows, they are not actually that different. […]
May 6th Biotech Update
Well, yesterday starting really good with PFE finally getting some love and the sector on decent footing but it certainly did not end well. We are now at the recent lows with odds likely favoring breaking the lows and triggering another leg lower. In some ways this is fundamentally and sentiment driven. As I noted […]
May 5th Biotech Update
I guess that is my bad for writing on a Tuesday when I usually do not write. The sector and market did not seem to like that at all, so my bad. In all seriousness, that was certainly not a good day but actually might be good. We now have a clear upside resistance level […]
May 4th Biotech Update
I usually do not have time to write on Tuesday but wanted to put out a quick note. In general, we are still in a decision area with the sector. We have broken the clear downtrend but are not out of the woods and have certainly not established a clear uptrend. In any case, I […]
May 3rd Biotech Update
Have we broken the downtrend? We are certainly in a much better position than before. We have not made a lower low and we are above what was the previous lower high. In other words, the clear downtrend is no longer that clear. We have not established a new uptrend but we are in the […]
April 30th Biotech Update
The hits keep coming for the sector. It is certainly underperforming compared to many other market sector but let us be clear. It is not sentiment. I know it is frustrating to see the sector perform poorly but this year has seen a dearth of M&A, clinical and regulatory failures, and now a disaster of […]
April 29th Biotech (and MLP) Update
There certainly seems to be a trend in earnings. The impact of the pandemic is still being felt and if we think about it, the 1Q21 was basically peak cases in the third wave and so it should also mark the peak impact. All that being said I suspect most investors are going to want […]
April 28th Biotech Update
It has been a rough start to earnings season. The sector has done pretty well considering, although it might highlight the need for large caps to do more deals as clearly they are not generating enough growth with their current pipelines and approved products. It is still early in earning seasons and it can still […]
April 26th Biotech Update
An OK start to the week in terms of being green. It looks like we have broken the lower high trends and it would be great to get confirmation of that this week and even make a push at $140 in the XBI. I know it is easy to dump on the sector but honestly […]
April 23rd Biotech Update
So close. We had some really good short term momentum that was going to clearly break above that recent lower high and maybe even get us a challenge of the $140 level. Then the news hit about the capital gains tax increase proposal and the whole market took a hit. On the positive, we did […]
April 22 Biotech Update
So the sector did not dump into new lows, which is good but we are still a really bad day or a couple of regular bad days away from breaking new lows. This $126 level on the XBI has acted as support a number of times (in that we have bounced off of it) but […]
April 21st Biotech Update
It is really starting to look like we have set another lower high and are on our way to set another lower low. I had some hope that we were getting some upside momentum but this just reinforces my view that you need to respect the trend until it is broken and while we have […]
April 19th Biotech Update
We remain in the same spot with the sector. It has not really given us the clear signal but we really need to break above that $140 level to ensure that we have not made a clear lower high. There is also another potential higher low being setup around $135.66 or so. I am not […]
April 16th Biotech Update
Today is modestly important not that we are going to break above an important range or below one but continued momentum higher is sort of key. We have had a good week so do far but if we stall at these levels it really looks like a clear trend line lower where yesterday has the […]
April 15th Biotech Update
I want to be optimistic and speak to the new upside momentum in the sector and in the immediate term that is accurate. The issue is that even with all the positive price action we have only been able to get to the middle of the $125 to $140 range that is key for the […]
April 14th Biotech Update
I will try and make this quick today as we have strong storms and who knows if power will hold out. Luckily there is not a ton of news but that does not mean we are not at an important point. I am a little torn in how to see the sector. We bounced and […]
April 12th Biotech Update
Is this the week of decision? Given that we are much closer to the downside break than upside, if we do get a decision this week it is likely negative. As such, I think the two most likely scenarios this week are either a downside breakdown or a bounce from these lower levels and move […]
