The sector has certainly strung a couple of good days together and it is probably in overbought territory as we approach the upper end of this long term range. The top of the range has been around the $137-$142 level and that seems like a pretty large ran for a top. Ideally we would want […]
November 3nd Biotech Update
The sector seems to be building some momentum (dare I say) but I guess it shows how low expectations were that two strong days in a row seems like such an accomplishment. We did get a drug price proposal in the bills in congress but it is a win for the sector. It allows […]
November 1st Biotech Update
A good start to the week but it is early in many ways. We would want to see this momentum build throughout the day and more importantly build across the days. The sector has had the occasional positive day but it has been a real struggle to string positive days together. Hopefully this is […]
October 29th Biotech Update
It was a good day for the sector yesterday and with generally positive earnings there is a chance we could build some momentum. Add to that the removal of the drug pricing reform threat (it came out yesterday that was removed as a source of funding) and you have the potential to develop momentum. Of […]
October 28th Biotech Update
The sector is being the sector. It really seems to be coiling for a big move as the range has been pretty tight. I think the concern is that the broader market might be due for a pullback and given how poor the sector has been what is going to happen if the broader market […]
October 27th Biotech Update
Would you be surprised to hear that we are basically trudging along in a sentiment mire where everyone hates the sector but its not making new lows? This really feels like a sector that has had everyone who wanted to sell sell-out their positions. We know that the sector is very underweighted but if we […]
October 25th Biotech Update
The sector continues its muddle. We are approaching earnings seasons but there are not any real launches that are exciting and M&A has picked up a little but clearly has not really sparked interest. It is a broken record to talk about the sentiment and how poor it has been. It is at the point […]
October 21st Biotech Update
It continues to be a benign week of trading the sector. I think the context matters in that given the underperformance even slow neutral weeks feels worse than it is. We are waiting for that solid move to the upside given how long and far the sector has underperformed. While it is tedious to have […]
October 20th Biotech Update
The sector feels like it is in a worse place than it actually is. I think the underperformance compared to the broader market is aggravating especially because this have been happening for awhile. All of that disappointment aside, the sector does not seem like it is going to breakdown but of course one worries what […]
October 18th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week both in terms of news and trading. I think they are linked in that we had a series of bad news and that is impacting the sector. I do not think any of the news runs the risk of forcing a downside break but certainly it was not […]
October 15th Biotech Update
A muted start to the morning but hopefully we can build on some of the positive momentum from yesterday. It seems to me that the sector wants to get to that $130 level where it should be some resistance. I think that level is important in the near term but longer term it is that […]
October 14th Biotech Update
A good morning so far. It is certainly nice to see and ideally this is where we start to build some momentum. We seem to have had countless false starts but if you take a step back it almost looks as if this entire year (since about March) has been a range between $120 and […]
October 13th Biotech Update
Well, this week is not a disaster and that is positive. We have not built any momentum to the upside but we also do not seem on the verge of breaking down. We are inching closer to a seasonally positive period for the sector and so treading water and forming a base is not bad. […]
October 11th Biotech Update
Still fall break with the kids, so I will try and keep this focused. The sector is off to a good start this week and it is hard to know if this is simply following the broader market, a bounce from support, or a move from some positive news. It is likely a little of […]
October 8th Biotech Update
The kids have their fall break so I am working from home but wanted to provide at least a couple of thoughts as there has been some news. It will be very interesting to see if the sector keeps the positive momentum of yesterday after what seems to be significantly negative clinical news. One might […]
October 7th Biotech Update
Shockingly the sector is rallying with the rest of the market. It seems like it has been awhile and a little morning rally in a broader market rally is nothing really to write home about but it is a start. I have been saying that we were at the bottom end of what seems like […]
October 6th Biotech (and Energy) Update
Sentiment around the sector is pretty negative even though I would say that we are not quite breaking down. We certainly have not developed an uptrend but stepping back it looks like we are in a big range and are currently at the lower end of that range. We are at support right now and […]
October 4th Biotech Update
The sector is at an odd sort of place. It seemed to catch a break and had a reversal off of some support late last week and today we are back to the selling. It does not help that the broader market is not doing well either but at some point the sector has to […]
October 1st Biotech Update
The sector cannot catch a break as we get great clinical news this morning and it will likely end up hurting the sector more than helping. The question in my mind now is whether the support for the sector is $122 or $118 ranges as one cannot ignore the selling in response to positive news. […]
September 30th Biotech Update
What seemed like long rumored has come to pass with a decently sized deal in the sector. The reaction yesterday was quite negative and I think expectations on price got too high. I firmly believe that if this deal was announced last Monday (before the runup in XLRN started) at this exact same price the […]
