Monday afternoon felt a little like the market was really setting up for another big leg down but since then it seems to have settled a little. This is the market we are going to be stuck with as Monday it looked almost as if China was going to start providing more aid to Russia […]
March 14th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
Not much has changed in the Ukraine. This is probably a positive for the market but this stalemate cannot last indefinitely. If the Ukrainians are successfully hitting the Russian supply lines (as it appears) then the Russian forces will soon (another week or so) have very little supplies left that they will be unable to […]
March 11th Biotech (and Ukraine and Energy) Update
The market and conflict in the Ukraine tough to read right now. Things have more or less settled into a stalemate in the Ukraine and the market is probably OK with that but this stalemate is not sustainable. The Ukrainians have been degrading the Russia supplies and this degrades Russian capabilities and increases the chance […]
March 9 Biotech (and Energy) Update
Has the market adjusted to the conflict in the Ukraine? Commodities are cooling off, VIX is going down and risk assets (and the market) are going higher. As I noted, I think the market decline has passed if the conflict does not expand or escalate. The situation has been simmering at the current levels for […]
March 7th Biotech (and Ukraine and Energy) Update
The situation in the Ukraine seems to have ground to a halt but this is a lull before another storm. The market is adjusting to the new reality but is still going to react to the ebbs and flows of the conflict. Risks are still tremendous and I am not sure how it all turns […]
March 4th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
Sorry I have missed a lot this week but it has been a difficult week but I should be back to the regular flow. There is a lot I kind of missed and it will take me a bit to catch up. While there will be some company specific information and moves, we are going […]
February 24th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
So Russia invaded and the market is going down. It seems like a lot of the broader market anticipated this and so it is not down as much as it could have been. I think investors are still trying to work through the economic and political impacts and so there could be some parts of […]
February 18th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
We have more of the same today. The crisis in Ukraine is only escalating as we head into a long weekend and there are no indications that this escalation will decrease. I have the feeling that as we get closer to the end of trading that investors will think less and less favorably about being […]
February 17th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
We are getting more of the same this morning with general weakness but some small pockets of outperformance. I suspect that if the broader market continues to weaken those pockets of strength will be less green and more not red as the general market. Today seems like the previous days only amplified to a certain […]
February 16th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
The whiplash continues. A good day yesterday and weakness today. On the positive, it could be the case that we are continuing to build that messy bottom in the sector and so while I would like to see a nice clear uptrend, a long base building where we bounce around but do not make lower […]
February 14th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
I think the market and sector is in a holding pattern until we see what happens with Russia and the Ukraine. US intelligence indicates an attack this week (with some details indicating a false flag on Tuesday and attack on Wednesday). If we can get through this week without an attack then perhaps some of […]
February 10th Biotech Update
The sector had been doing well but the inflation data this morning was worse than expected both year on year and month on month. This increases rate increase expectations and higher rates has been lowering the sector. At some point, however, one has to think that rate increases would be priced into the market. How […]
Feb9th Biotech Update
The sector is doing well this week and hopefully we can keep it up. Not a lot of sector changing news but there is enough news that if one was looking for a reason to buy there are reasons. I still think it is less about the fundamentals at this point and more about the […]
February 7th Biotech Update
A good start to the week and we are still in the middle of earnings. Obviously the sector has been oversold and it is at least due for a dead cat bounce. It is also possible that last week was the start of the messy bottoming process. I am not sure even the market knows. […]
February 4th Biotech Update
So we have not broken down which leaves the messy bottoming process still the potential pattern. Today will be sort of interesting from a market and sector perspective with the strong jobs report. The jobs report was unexpectedly strong and I assume that will increase rates and rate hike expectations. We know that the sector […]
February 3rd Biotech (and MLP update)
I think we are at the point where it might not be about whether we break out of the downtrend and more at the point of whether or not this is part of a messy bottoming process or setting up a lower low. The broader markets are clearly not helping the sector and if the […]
February 2nd Biotech Update
The sector actually put together a couple of good days in a row but today is back to its underperformance. I would not give up on the sector given that it is still early in the day and the general market seems a little supportive of a reversal. Also even if the sector has changed […]
January 31st Biotech Update
I may have bottomed the sector. I do not remember what day it was but I talked about the sector possibly needing a sort of crash to bottom and get that seller exhaustion that would mark a bottom. The sector has done OK since then but of course this pattern has happened before. There as […]
January 28th Biotech Update
So it seems like the sector will not be building off of the reversals earlier in the week. We can point to a number of potential factors like the fed and interest rates, the correction in the broader markets, the risk of conflict in Europe, or the spate of clinical holds this week. I am […]
January 27th Biotech Update
Yesterday had all the setup to signal a turning of the tide for the sector but it fell apart. Of course, the Fed was the cause and the sector does not like increasing costs of capital. There was nothing really that new in the Fed news but it seems like the reminder that rates will […]
