I had a sneaking suspicion that we would reverse on that gap lower but in no way shape or form are we out of the woods. The Fed still will increase rates and risks to the financial markets remain high. It seemed that the doom and gloom had reached extreme levels and so a short […]
October 13th Biotech Update
We firmly remain in do not fight the Fed mode. They have been quite clear and consistent that they will be focused on bringing down inflation through rate increases and that the job is not done. I remain convinced that inflation has peaked and is rolling over in real time. The problem is that in […]
October 10th Biotech Update
Last week was an odd one of sorts. It started off quite strong but ended a weak. Overall it ended up being a slightly positive week but the way it ended did not feel great. The Fed speakers continue to push the narrative of rate hikes and I do not see that ended anytime in […]
October 5th Biotech Update
Apparently all I need to do is put out a cautious note and the market takes off. I am going to goose the market even more as I am still not convinced we are out of the woods. I do not see us at the end of the interest rate hikes and the Fed wants […]
October 3rd Biotech Update
I am really torn on the market right now. There is not a lot going on in biotech to make it really capable of swimming against the current (if the broader market weakens) and so I think macro really matters. I want to focus on two macro issues that I think are weighing on the […]
September 29th Biotech Update
As much as we had a good day early this week, the market looks really tenuous. I have seen some statistics about position that look quite bullish (i.e. investors are extremely under-invested) but I have also seen some statistics that show the interest rates have move very fast and the market needs to catch up […]
September 27th Biotech Update
The broader market continues to have issues with rates and inflation, although the sector did a little better yesterday. I fully expect the sector to outperform today and would be quite disappointed if not for a longer period of time. We finally have something to be a little excited about and it came from a […]
September 26th Biotech Update
A green start to the week? It seems that way but after last week, it seems a little less than exciting. Is this simply the rally that resets the oversold conditions for another leg lower or is this the rally that stops the bleeding and starts to build a new base? Who really knows but […]
September 23rd Biotech Update
It has not been a good week for the market or the sector. We have clearly broken down and interest rate concerns are probably going to at best keep a lid on the upside and at worst continue the downside. I do not think it was a coincidence that the sector seemed to get it […]
September 21st Biotech Update
The sector has managed to not breakdown and that is good. We are still in a precarious position with the macro still having the potential to drive us down regardless of the fundamentals. It really depends on the rate increase and how much the sector has priced in that action. We know that rates are […]
September 19th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week but unfortunately not a good start to the sector. We are at a critical area as I think the $80 level needs to hold on the XBI to limit the potential for a clear breakdown. This has been support and resistance and a break below would not be a […]
September 14th Biotech Update
Well, that was not a great day. Interest rates and risk off are not kind to the sector. As long as we can hold support I think we will be fine. I am not convinced that this is going to be a large and sustained sell off as opposed to a quick adjustment. I get […]
September 13th Biotech Update
Today is going to be a macro day. The CPI data was a little too hot for the market. While I think we have likely seen peak inflation, it probably takes time for it to really cool down and likely involves more rate hikes and a slowing down of the economy (if not recession). The […]
September 9th Biotech Update
The market did well yesterday and hopefully we can build on that into the weekend. The ideal scenario is that old level that we broke out of ends up being the support that we use to move higher. Yesterday was a good start for that process but we need continuation. GILD announced some more detailed […]
September 8th Biotech Update
Sorry for the little break. I am hopefully back and at it. The sector has not done great but it does not look too bad either. There have been lower lows and lower highs, which signals a clear downtrend but it seems to have been pretty orderly and we are now back to the old […]
August 15th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week but that is not necessarily bad. The sector has been strong and there has been nothing to change it. I think the biggest news has been outside the sector with the decline in the Empire State index, but I imagine that might not been a massive surprise (perhaps the […]
August 10th Biotech Update
Did we have that pullback that refreshed? Sort of. We went down to what was resistance and have bounced but it was a quick little move. In some ways, a move down to the $87 level on the XBI would be the former resistance and I will be really looking to see if we make […]
August 8th Biotech Update
A good start to the week and it should continue the momentum for the sector. While I think we still can move on the news, it is also the case that the sector has had a nice run recently. Nothing goes up (or down forever) and the longer the run, the better the news has […]
August 4th Biotech Update
Are we finally starting to see the wheels of M&A loosen? Perhaps. We got some this morning as well as a new rumor. It is enough to move the sector (at least a little). We are definitely in a different spot as the news is actually moving the sector higher. It was not that long […]
August 3rd Biotech Update
We started the week at the bottom of the range and within three days we are at the top of the range. I find days like this a little tough to judge. Big positive moves like this make it feel like there is very strong momentum but when they smack against the top of a […]
