I believe today is Fed day and my expectation is that there is a 66% chance of a 25 basis point hike and 33% chance of a pause (and 1% of some other action). I think regardless of the action the tone will certainly shift more dovish or at least more cautious given the recent […]
March 21st Biotech Update
The markets are holding in there, which is probably not awful at this point. While most probably expected larger moves, a slow grind at these levels and a steady move higher is probably a healthier sign for the future of the market. Of course, the banking crisis moves fast and events could once again spiral […]
March 20th Biotech Update
An interesting weekend that leads to a basically flat opening? I do not know anyone who would have placed bets on a relatively flat opening given that the global banking crisis seems to have accelerated with CS being bought by UBS. If this was the culmination of the banking crisis, then you would have expected […]
March 17th Biotech Update
Volatility continues as questions around banks both at home and abroad remain. The actions to support a number of banks has also been met with a lukewarm response. There were initially a positive reaction but that has seen tapered off as questions remain both on the individual banks, the banking system, the economy, and the […]
March 16th Biotech Update
The banking crisis continues as CS looks to be the latest bank in the crosshairs. To be fair, there seems to have been questions around CS for years and so it is not necessarily something new but it obviously has become acute. I think it is difficult to see CS going under as one of […]
March 15th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the day. It seems like banks are taking a hit (and not just the regionals but even the too big to fail variety) and as long as the market perceives a banking crisis, it will be difficult for the market to rally. To be fair when you have two of […]
March 14th Biotech Update
Inflation came within expectations (with expectations that it continues to slowly cool although it still remains high). I think the 50 bps hike is completely off the table at this point and I would lean towards a pause over the 25 bps hike. I am not as aggressive in thinking that the Fed pauses but […]
March 13th Biotech Update
Quite the start to the week and it would be quite disappointing if all the news does not get at least a snap back rally in the sector but there are a lot of moving parts. We have both major macro news as well as sector (and portfolio) news and I will cover them on […]
March 10th Biotech Update
We are up against it. Either these mid-$70s hold on the XBI or we are heading down to around $60. This is not a technical issue at work but two brutal fundamental issues that came to the fore the past couple of days. I will talk through them as opposed to focusing on individual stocks. […]
March 9th Biotech Update
I feel like we are in déjà vu all over again. This year feels like last year where the sector underperforms when the market is weak and underperforms when it is strong. Good news provides only a momentary boost only to be given back and bad news is punished severely. All that being said we […]
March 8th Biotech Update
We remain at a precarious position for the sector and market in general. We had a little bounce, but it was a disappointing ending to what could have been a nice day. Those sorts of reversal do not signal strength. To be fair, there was some more hawkish Fed talk and it is not necessarily […]
March 6th Biotech Update
The week ended on a positive note and it would be good to continue with that move as soon as possible this week. I still sort of worry about the increased rates expectations and how that will ultimately play out in the market/sector. Given the continued strength of the economy I think there is a […]
March 3rd Biotech Update
I am a little torn by the market and sector at this point. Part of me sees the recent weakness and pullback as a natural consolidation and part of me sees it the start of the last major downside related to the rate hike cycle. Expectations of rates have increased and I keep going back […]
March 1st Biotech (and Energy) Update
Well, well, well. A lot happened in the neuro space where there was concerns that it would become significantly more restrictive but I think that is off the table. Is the sector in a better place? I think so as there are a set of broader overhangs that I think it has to work through. […]
February 27th Biotech Update
It has gotten a little rough for the sector. Where I thought we could ideally build on a potential breakout and setup a nice positive trend, the sector looks like it has failed to establish that new trend higher. We are back to the old range and leaves it up in the air as to […]
February 17th Biotech Update
Just as we thought we were getting cleared of the Fed, they interjected themselves into the market again with perhaps longer rate hikes and perhaps even faster. Whether that comes to pass or not remains to be seen but the market did not quite have the more hawkish tone priced into the valuations. I do […]
February 13th Biotech Update
Not the greatest way to end the week as we clearly did not get that higher low that was the potential. We still could get a nice little trend, but we cannot get any lower. There is also a potential that we get back to the lower end of the old range, which would make […]
February 8th Biotech Update
It remains a slow week in terms of news and the sector has pulled back a little. Given the Fed talk the other day, I can live with the little pullback and if take a larger view then yesterday could be another higher low. Obviously we need to stay above it moving forward but there […]
February 6th Biotech Update
A relatively slow start to the week both in terms of news and trading. Last week we had a lot of large cap earnings and earing season continues but Mondays tend to be a little slow on the reports. We started the day red and are struggling to get to green. That would be a […]
February 3rd Biotech Update
I think I was right that we were entering a new uptrend but it still looked like we were in the range. It seems like we are in the process of breaking out but we still need to retest the old resistance and make sure it is new support. Whether we need to run higher […]
