I am a little torn about the trading yesterday. On the one hand, it looks like a washout low with a reversal, which is really good. On the other hand, if we cannot continue that momentum and move significantly higher that might only be a small respite for another move lower later this month. Remember […]
January 13th Biotech Update
JPM week starts with some deals, some potential deals, data, pre-announcements and most importantly I think a disappointed investor sentiment. I think there is enough to not be a true bust for the sector, but I also do not think there is enough action to really generate enough interest in the sector. It is still […]
January 9th Biotech Update
The sector has recovered a little but I would not say that it is anywhere near a really great place. We have moved from the edge of disaster and are more clearly within the trading range that seems to have developed. As I noted before any trading or movement this week can very easily be […]
January 6th Biotech Update
We are now making our way out of holiday trading and into what I would say is the first real trading day of the new year. I still think the sector trading will be focused on the upcoming JPM meeting next week and so whatever happens this week can change dramatically next. The key is […]
January 2nd Biotech Update
We are still either at the verge of dropping to a lower low or at the very least dangerously hanging out at the low end of a potential range. In either case, it is not great for the sector and we are still a couple of weeks away from JPM where we might actually get […]
December 30th Biotech Update
It has been quite thin trading in the end of the year. We the two major holidays in the middle of the week making the trading days probably even less active than usual. The sector is still in a sentiment slump and it has rallied a little, we cannot really say that it is not […]
December 20th Biotech Update
Are we getting a lower low after a lower high? It certainly can be the case but there is enough congestion at these levels and volume is low enough into the end of the year that I can see this not sticking as a breakdown. Of course, we really do need to break above the […]
December 18th Biotech Update
I know sentiment is not great in the sector but honestly if you take a step back we still remain rangebound. I know there are red hot sectors in the market, but it seems increasingly narrow set of stocks that are the beneficiaries. You just need to compare the NASDAQ with the DOW to see […]
December 12th Biotech Update
Let me know if you heard this before? We seem to be in a range bound market with the sector and appear to be lagging the broader markets. We are still waiting for a big pick up in news and, in particular, M&A. It seems that most people are using the sector more as a […]
December 9th Biotech Update
A pretty neutral start to the week but we also do not have a ton of sector moving news. I do not think we are quite at the point where trading slows down for the year but we are getting there. I would not be surprised to see continued rangebound trading heading into the end […]
December 3rd Biotech Update
Still a relatively slow start to the week but there is still some interesting news. The sector has certainly bounced from the lows it experienced after the election, but we might actually be back into a range bound sector. It looked like we had broken out but now I am not so sure. This could […]
November 26th Biotech Update
A nice recovery for the sector and so it is not surprising that we see a little pause. Perhaps we can continue the momentum the rest of the week but we are approaching a holiday and so I expect volumes to slow down and the momentum of this initial bounce to pause. This is not […]
November 25th Biotech Update
I suspect that the sector could be on pace to a nice recovery this week. Vivek comments this weekend and the FDA commissioner nominee may has allayed some concerns about the incoming administration and their relationship with the sector. I am not completely convinced about anything at this point but what I see it is […]
November 20th Biotech Update
We got the bounce that I was sort of expecting and I would not be surprised if it continued. We are right at pretty strong support (or what I thought should have been pretty strong support). My base case is that we should expect this bounce to continue but I am still not 100% sure […]
November 19th Biotech Update
Well, I was worried about false breakouts and the RFK nomination and both unfortunately came to fruition. We are at a point where support should start to limit the losses. I would actually be a little surprised if we do not get some kind of bounce from the these levels given how far and quickly […]
November 15th Biotech Update
Well, this is why I thought that there was not a clear election outcome that would be all bullish for the sector. The nomination of RFK to head HHS sent the sector down and regardless of what one think about the nomination, it increases uncertainty. He has talked about removing vaccine approvals, blocking others, and […]
November 14th Biotech Update
Are we having a false breakout? Maybe but I would not think that is the base case assumption. Breakouts can be choppy and we still likely have a uncertainty in politics (even though that has come down a lot). Until we get closer to the lower end of the range I would not start talking […]
Veterans Day Biotech Update
It’s beginning to look a lot (not Christmas) but a breakout. Ideally, we will be able to extend this move for a couple of days and then pullback to the previous upper end of the range, where it will act as new support. That would be a clear breakout confirmation and I think it is […]
November 8th Biotech Update
Hopefully we are on the verge of breaking out and it would be a nice end to the week to see a clear move higher above the range. I still think we really need to see more M&A to really create a clean breakout but I think the expectations seems to be that that is […]
November 7th Biotech Update
We got a clear result from the election and it seems clear (at least initially) that the market approves. I would not say that there is a clear breakout for the sector but we are at the area where one can start thinking that it is breaking out. I still think RFK could be an […]
