The market started a little weak this morning and while I am sure you can find a reason (Ebola, EU stress tests, end of POMO, etc), the market has had a nice run and simply needs to consolidate. This is not to say that we start the consolidation today but this is getting stretched in […]
October 24 Biotech Update
It was a neutral open for the market which is pretty positive given the selling related to the Ebola case in NYC. It is very positive to see the market shrug off the news as it now seems that the Ebola panic and fear is decreasing. I read that there are probably up to 8-10 […]
October 23 Bioech Update
The rebound is continuing with large caps continuing to lead but with good participation with the small caps, which is nice to see. It really is a little amazing to see how many V-shaped moves this market makes and how little memory it has day to day. In any case, I still think the path […]
October 22 Biotech Update
After a couple days of ripping higher the markets seemed to have calmed a little, which is understandable as this rip higher needs to be digested. The small caps tended to underperform the past couple days but it still might be a little too early to call it a trend and it could just be […]
October 20 Biotech Update
The world did not end in an Ebola pandemic this weekend nor did any economy implode, so the markets breathed a sigh of relief. We may be seeing the slow implosion of IBM but that damage seems isolated to the Dow (for now). When all is said and done it seems like a fairly neutral […]
October 17 Biotech Update
Looks like we are clearly having the bounce that everyone has been expecting (expect during the height of the selling where everyone expected the market to go to zero). This should have fairly significant legs even if it is a dead cat bounce. At this point the conservative stance is to stay agnostic about the […]
October 16 Biotech Update
The market continues its weakness but I am certainly encouraged that small caps are out performing. They were an early signal on the way down and so are potentially an early signal on the way back up. Of course, it could just be funds who were short are raising cash but I am not convinced […]
Biotech Survey Results- Number 1
This is the first report on what I want to be a fairly regular set of surveys. I want to keep the surveys short to maximize participation as the more responders the more relevant the results. I also plan on regularly doing the question on market direction and top three, so over time we will […]
October 15 Biotech Update- The Alibaba Top and Abbvie Bottom?
ABBV broke the market! I say that only half in jest. The prospects that ABBV will walk away from SHPG is triggering heavy selling in SHPG and there are a number of large funds invested in SHPG not use to losing 20%+ on a position in a day. In biotech that is an unfortunate consequence […]
Biotech Survey
As a way to aggregate views of the sector and companies in the sector, we are going to periodically survey investors. Please take this short (3 questions) survey and we will release the results later this week when we have enough responses. Thanks. https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/XG8W75Q
October 13 Biotech Update
It looks like we started the week in rally mode but last week certainly shows how quickly that can change from day to day just as today changed quickly as well. I feel like the market is Schrodinger’s Cat at this point. On the one hand, we are at support that has been very strong […]
October 10 Biotech Update
I am still not convinced that the market is done correcting. Even if we have another rip roaring rally, it just seems like the path of least resistance over the near term is lower. In fact, I would not be surprised if we are not beginning the long awaited 10% correction. If that is the […]
October 8
It was basically a neutral open in the market this morning with more green than red. While I would certainly prefer a market ripping higher, it seems like a sharp short covering rally is not going to halt the down trend. A slow grind higher as buyers enter the market seems better but after the […]
October 6 Biotech Update
The market is OK this morning with biotechs not the strongest sector. That is not completely unexpected given the 60 Minutes story on cancer drug pricing. As such you would expect a little bit of weakness early but I am curious as to see if this is simply reflex selling or something more sustained. 1. […]
October 3 Biotech Update
We are finally starting to see the snap back rally and the question at this point is going to be the sustainability. Ideally we would like to see increasing volume and closing near the highs and at this point my base case is that this has some legs over the near term. What I find […]
October 2 Biotech Update
Surprise, surprise but the markets a not great (again). While we are not seeing the selling (yet), there is still not a lot of buying going on. We did get that additional move down I was expecting but I still have the sense that the path of least resistance is lower but we are probably […]
October 1 Biotech Update
The market is weak again and that is starting to sound like a broken record. At this point, it seems like we should be closer to the end of this correction than the beginning as the internal indicators that I have seen are indicating oversold conditions and we are at good levels of support. That […]
September 29 Biotech Update
A crappy start to the weak but perhaps we will get a wash out followed by a rally. Despite the selling, the sector is doing OK but clearly everything is being hit. There was a good amount of news this morning and I want to focus on two of them and follow up with additional […]
September 26 Biotech Update
Well, we have some more news today but still not a ton. I wanted to get out a quick and early note because I will be busy the rest of the day. The market seems to have no memory from day and day and is really trying to find a direction. I still lean towards […]
September 25 Biotech Update
It was a quiet news day on the biotech front and the market was quite weak early. Going into that environment I would expect a continued selling of biotechs but they seemed to hold up rather well. Perhaps I am focusing too much on the strength in GILD but even without that performance, biotechs seemed […]
