This is the first report on what I want to be a fairly regular set of surveys. I want to keep the surveys short to maximize participation as the more responders the more relevant the results. I also plan on regularly doing the question on market direction and top three, so over time we will […]
October 15 Biotech Update- The Alibaba Top and Abbvie Bottom?
ABBV broke the market! I say that only half in jest. The prospects that ABBV will walk away from SHPG is triggering heavy selling in SHPG and there are a number of large funds invested in SHPG not use to losing 20%+ on a position in a day. In biotech that is an unfortunate consequence […]
Biotech Survey
As a way to aggregate views of the sector and companies in the sector, we are going to periodically survey investors. Please take this short (3 questions) survey and we will release the results later this week when we have enough responses. Thanks. https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/XG8W75Q
October 13 Biotech Update
It looks like we started the week in rally mode but last week certainly shows how quickly that can change from day to day just as today changed quickly as well. I feel like the market is Schrodinger’s Cat at this point. On the one hand, we are at support that has been very strong […]
October 10 Biotech Update
I am still not convinced that the market is done correcting. Even if we have another rip roaring rally, it just seems like the path of least resistance over the near term is lower. In fact, I would not be surprised if we are not beginning the long awaited 10% correction. If that is the […]
October 8
It was basically a neutral open in the market this morning with more green than red. While I would certainly prefer a market ripping higher, it seems like a sharp short covering rally is not going to halt the down trend. A slow grind higher as buyers enter the market seems better but after the […]
October 6 Biotech Update
The market is OK this morning with biotechs not the strongest sector. That is not completely unexpected given the 60 Minutes story on cancer drug pricing. As such you would expect a little bit of weakness early but I am curious as to see if this is simply reflex selling or something more sustained. 1. […]
October 3 Biotech Update
We are finally starting to see the snap back rally and the question at this point is going to be the sustainability. Ideally we would like to see increasing volume and closing near the highs and at this point my base case is that this has some legs over the near term. What I find […]
October 2 Biotech Update
Surprise, surprise but the markets a not great (again). While we are not seeing the selling (yet), there is still not a lot of buying going on. We did get that additional move down I was expecting but I still have the sense that the path of least resistance is lower but we are probably […]
October 1 Biotech Update
The market is weak again and that is starting to sound like a broken record. At this point, it seems like we should be closer to the end of this correction than the beginning as the internal indicators that I have seen are indicating oversold conditions and we are at good levels of support. That […]
September 29 Biotech Update
A crappy start to the weak but perhaps we will get a wash out followed by a rally. Despite the selling, the sector is doing OK but clearly everything is being hit. There was a good amount of news this morning and I want to focus on two of them and follow up with additional […]
September 26 Biotech Update
Well, we have some more news today but still not a ton. I wanted to get out a quick and early note because I will be busy the rest of the day. The market seems to have no memory from day and day and is really trying to find a direction. I still lean towards […]
September 25 Biotech Update
It was a quiet news day on the biotech front and the market was quite weak early. Going into that environment I would expect a continued selling of biotechs but they seemed to hold up rather well. Perhaps I am focusing too much on the strength in GILD but even without that performance, biotechs seemed […]
September 24 Biotech Update
After a fairly weak start to the week, the sector seemed a little stronger this morning but the markets are teetering on a much larger correction. At this point, however, the markets may be oversold enough to get a near term bounce. The key is whether that bounce will be significant enough to push the […]
September 22 Biotech Update
The sector really seems bifurcated at this point. While the large caps have been pretty reliable winners the past couple of months, it seems like they are taking a break. Obviously, they are still close to their highs but more often than not they appear to struggle to gain and when they do the gains […]
September 18 Biotech Update
Seems like a mixed day for the sector with the broader markets offering a nice background for gains but the biotech sector is not really rallying as you would expect. It is still early and I am not sure there is too much to read into this but one would prefer to see a more […]
September 17 Biotech Update
The sector rallied yesterday and seems to be trying to continue the move this morning. I think we are in no man’s land at this point as a lot of stocks are getting close to lines of resistance (for instance, GILD and CELG are both approaching the 20 day SMA). Will we pause and breakout […]
September 15 Biotech Update
We have a very weak start to the week as biotech buyers appear to have stepped aside. At this point, I think it is safe to say that we are in the midst of a correction and now the question is a matter of degree. We should be approaching an area of support, so it […]
September 12 Biotech Update
Another day and another bit of weakness in the sector and market. The longer that we churn along at these levels the more it looks like stocks are resting for a continuation of the main trend (higher). It is not a high conviction view but unless the market breaks to the downside soon, it looks […]
September 11 Biotech Update
The market was pretty benign but biotechs seemed to really be taking it on the chin early. There does not seem to be a strong fundamental reason for the weakness as far as I can tell (unless you think the CELG selling is creating a larger pin action), so it looks more like profit taking […]
