And just like that the potential relief rally is over. We are breaking new lows and the little rally looks like another lower high. I had at least one day of potential hope for the sector but my long-standing view that we are heading to the $62 area seems unfortunately accurate. Of course, there is […]
October 18th Biotech Update
I am back and I am not sure if everyone should be happy or sad. There was a significant selloff while I was away but the past couple of days have had a nice bounce. I honestly feel a little better with the sector right now (as I will explain below) but we have neither […]
October 11th Biotech Update
It should surprise no one but we remain linked to interest rates and while the Fed is not raising short term rates, long term rates continue to rise. As long as it appears that the Fed cycle and long term rate moves higher are not ending, then the sector is going to struggle. Given the […]
October 10th Biotech Update
Not an awful start to the week all things considered. I still worry that this is simply reset the chart for the next move lower but I still definitely prefer being wrong on that ultimate move and that we find a way put in a bottom at this level. In order to have any confidence […]
October 9th Biotech Update
We had a decent end to the week in that we rallied a little but I still think as long as we stay under $75 it is nothing more than a rally that resets the oversold conditions. With a new war in the Middle East and one that has uncertainty as to the potential to […]
The Relationship between Upfront Payments in a Licensing Deal and Its Success
I am introducing a new series of reports that take a data analytic look at the sector. These use data I collected and coded about various aspects of the sector. If you would like additional information about these data or additional data analysis that can be performed, please contact me at (dsobek@sobekanalytics.com). We know that […]
October 5th Biotech Update
Are we getting to a near term bottom in the sector? Perhaps, the selling is getting to pretty extreme levels and we did not end yesterday on the lows. We did not really do a massive reversal either, but I do not think we have a near-term chance of getting to the multi-year lows of […]
October 3rd Biotech Update
The sector really deserves a no comment comment as it disappoints yet again. To be fair, it is not just the sector but the broader market is not great and now there is talk of one more rate hike before we are done. There are many ways to account for the weakness but I do […]
October 2nd Biotech Update
Not a great end to the week but we are finally done with September. Everyone seemed to think that September was going to be a seasonally weak month (it certainly was true) and that we have the potential for a stronger end to the year. Of course, how much is that strength going to matter […]
September 29th Biotech Update
We ended down yesterday but I actually find the trading encouraging. There was a big move down early in the day and we spent the rest of the trading day grinding higher. We still ended lower but we had one hour of selling and the rest of the day was buying. If we can continue […]
September 28th Biotech Update
We built on the move yesterday but I sort of feel unsatisfied with it. Perhaps it would have been too much to ask for a rapid and clear bounce off of support but it was a start. I think the most important point would be to remain above the recent lows as anything below that […]
September 27th Biotech Update
Yesterday was a better day. The market was weak and yet the sector outperformed. That is quite the rare occasion. It had been such a brutal month, there was bound to be a day in which the selling eased. There was some news that could have driven the outperformance but was that simply an excuse […]
September 25th Biotech Update
I think teetering is the word I would use to describe the sector. While a lot of the poor performance is sector related, I see this as more of a broader market issue with risk off hitting the whole market and that impacts the sector as being a risky sector. We have both interest rates […]
September 22nd, Biotech Update
I thought we were heading to these levels and unfortunately we made it. This certainly needs to hold because the next real support ends up being around $62. The whole market is weak an so this is not necessarily an XBI issue but we have been in a bear market for multiple years and seemingly […]
September 19th Biotech Update
The sector is not looking that great. We are at the level that could have been the support for a range bound market but we are marginally below it. It makes me think that we are heading down to the $72.5 area but the move has been more or less straight down and so are […]
September 18th Biotech Update
So we stopped the clear downtrend when we made the move to $81 but all that did was stop us from having a lower high (we basically made it to the previous high of the downtrend). I think it is pretty clear that we are not able to start an uptrend and we are going […]
September 14th Biotech Update
Not exactly the day that we wanted to build confidence. We had a chance but it sort of looks more like a range bound bottoming process is more likely than a clear move into an uptrend. Of course, we still have the potential to break lower but I still think a range is more likely […]
September 12th Biotech Update
We could be setting up a higher low but I would be very cautious. If we can remain above these levels and not get down to recent lows it would be a positive sign. It also means that we need to get above $81.50 to set a higher high (at least in terms of starting […]
September 11th Biotech Update
Not a ton has changed. We are setting up the potential to establish a higher low but that probably needs to be done this week and I still think there is a potential to revisit the lows as opposed to stay well above them. As I noted last week, I sort of lean towards more […]
September 7th Biotech Update
I do not think things are as dire as they may feel in the sector. Obviously, if the broader markets weaken (and this is traditionally a weak month), then the sector will not be able to withstand it. If you squint your eyes just right, we have actually moved higher than the previous lower high […]
