I am glad I was out of the office for the start of the week as the market took a drubbing. While today is certainly starting off better, this is still not a healthy market. I want to spend some time talking macro and then broadly about biotech and end with some specific company news. […]
February 5 Biotech Update
The sector did OK during the pricing hearing but it was more of a mixed bag than across the board out- or under-performance. Today everything is down, so it is hard to see if there is any other effect from the hearing or the debate last night. We are still in a macro driven market […]
February 4 Biotech Update
Today is going to be an interesting day. Yes, there is the drug pricing testimony in Congress and that is simply a show and grandstanding that has no impact on the actual chances of changing policy. It will be good theater (unless you are already tired of seeing the same stories recycled everyday) but in […]
February 3 Biotech Update
The market remains tied to oil and while sentiment remains negative on oil it still has not made a new low. This is not to say that a new low is not coming but as long as it does not make a lower low, it is at least some positive for the market. Ultimately, we […]
February 1 Biotech Update
Different week but the same market. There remains a bias to the downside, although perhaps an optimist can see a slight outperformance of the sector. At the very least, it seems like the sector is not leading the market lower. We got some news this morning but the key this week will continue to be […]
January 29 Biotech Update
It was obviously another bad day for the sector. The technicals look broken. The headlines are all about pricing. Buyers are on strike. There are no real exciting near term catalyst. Despite all of the negatives, there is some reason for hope at least over the medium term. 1. ISI had an impromptu call yesterday […]
January 28 Biotech Update
The market and sector did not like the FOMC decision or perhaps the wording of the decision. The sector remains in a precarious position. It has already fallen a lot but it remains at critical long term trend lines and if they break we could only be halfway through the decline. There was some talk […]
January 27 Biotech Update
The sector finally caught a break with the macro headwinds seeming to pause only to get sector specific headwinds with Donald Trump talking about drug pricing. It was not clear exactly what he meant as the numbers he threw around for the savings from Medicaid were more than the Medicaid yearly drug expense (keeping in […]
January 25 Biotech Update
It is a mixed start to the week but at least we have some biotech news to talk about even if it is not exactly what was expected. That being said I still think we are in a macro driven market and it will be hard for any sector to avoid the headwinds (or tailwinds) […]
January 22 Biotech Update
The market seems to be catching its footing but again if we are bottoming we are in the early stages and confirmation still needs to happen but I am cautiously optimistic that the selling pressure has eased (not really a brave statement to make this morning but given the start to the year you never […]
January 21 Biotech Update
So we have some biotech to talk about (finally) and the sector had a nice rally off the lows yesterday but we are not out of the woods by a country mile. At this point, however, it looks to be setting up as at least a tradable bounce but more ideally we would want it […]
January 20 Biotech Stock Update
Not much news as most people wait on SRPT questions as the panel approaches but even then there will not be a lot of new information in the questions (yes, maybe it signals what the FDA is thinking but that is likely too much to ask for a set of voting questions but not impossible). […]
January 19 Biotech Update
A pretty slow start to the week on the news front, so I will focus on more broad issues as they are likely more important than usual given that we are trading in a macro driven market. Assuming that there is still a lack of news tomorrow, I will finish the broader theme ideas tomorrow. […]
January 15 Biotech Update
I hope everyone enjoyed the move yesterday as it looks like it was only a quick respite to the relentless decline in 2016. Sentiment will eventually change but the hopes of a V shaped recovery are fading fast. If we can avoid making new lows, then there might be some positive to come out of […]
January 14 Biotech Update
So the sector has been struggling a little during JPM. I think many hoped (including me) that good news out of JPM would be a nice catalyst to flip sector sentiment but we essentially saw the opposite with all news (good and bad) being sold. At this point, it is clear that the selling has […]
January 7 Biotech Update
The year is off to an even worst start as all the secondaries are getting bad prices (to varying degrees of bad) and all are breaking those prices. China continues to collapse taking commodities with it as well as strengthening the dollar taking the markets with it. On the encouraging side, the technical analyst at […]
January 6 Biotech Update
The year is really off to a bad start and I am not sure what will reverse it. You have continued bad news with China, which is continuing the rout in commodities and strengthening the dollar killing emerging markets and it seems like the US market. Outside of some bright spots in the service sector, […]
January 5 Biotech Update
While the market recovered a little into the end of the day yesterday and had a slight positive bias this morning, it is still not looking too healthy. I am not sure if this is simply people selling or buyers being afraid to step in. In terms of the sector, I still think JPM will […]
January 4 Biotech Update
Well, 2016 is not off to the best of starts and I am of two minds when it comes to the market. First, there are not a lot of reasons to be excited. Earnings will be poor and macro does not seem conducive with China continuing to weaken. So what will be the catalysts that […]
December 31 Biotech Update
I figured there would be a more positive bias as we headed into the end of the year but the market has seen some selling. Obviously volume is low but the new Clinton talk of drug prices plus the low volumes is probably not good for the sector. Just as the drug pricing issue was […]
