The sector remains mixed although there does not seem to be anything in the market to inspire a lot of confidence. We have macro coming with the likely first rate hike (I have no confidence in judging how the market would react to a rate hike or no hike event) and even within the sector […]
December 9 Biotech Update
So it was a busy ASH and not necessarily a good one for the sector. On a net-net basis the data were fine but we had a big miss on perhaps the most important data set for the sector and that drove sentiment and price action. I will go through some of my post-ASH thoughts […]
December 4 Biotech Update
It has been a bad week for the sector as we head into ASH. Perhaps this is setting up good run ups on positive data but usually weak tapes do not generate significant upside on positive catalysts. It seems that these moves are macro related (perhaps worry about interest rate hike), although we have had […]
December 2 Biotech Update
The sector was weak yesterday and this morning at the open. It is not clear to me if the weakness is just a give back from the low volume rallies last week or something news related. There was some noise out of DC about GILD and the pricing of Sovaldi. There was a massive report […]
November 30 Biotech Update
We are heading into ASH and that is sure to be the topic of much discussion but I find it more and more difficult to trade these medical conferences as everyone is trying to trade these medical conferences. Not only do you need to accurately figure out the catalyst but also need to accurately figure […]
November 25 Biotech Update
Trading is slow this week but news is not. Yesterday was better but I still think it is too early to call the sector back but at the very least I believe is has found its footing. Interestingly it seems that the SMID caps are outperforming the larger caps (finally) although they have a lot […]
November 23 Biotech Update
Of course, it is Thanksgiving week and the kids have off school so I will keep this focused on the big news of the day and that is the PFE/AGN merger agreement. I am doing this quickly so please excuse typos and other issues. 1. The deal is cheaper than I expected and I thought […]
November 20 Biotech Update
The sector still cannot gain real footing and follow positive days with additional positive days. That being said as long as the positive days either outnumber or have higher gains than the losing day loses, then we can churn higher (or at the very least churn sideways and build a nice base). I am sure […]
November 18 Biotech Update
It seems like every time I am out of town something major happens. I have not really followed the sector trading, so I cannot really comment on that but obviously there is some major news that will be the focus of a couple of articles. 1. As much as one tries to avoid blowups, if […]
November 13 Biotech Update
It has been a tough couple of days with pretty broad weakness but we will see how we end the week as many stocks have had a decent run so a pause is not unexpected (or bearish- yet). I am still not convinced the rallies have not been short covering and if we are to […]
November 11 Biotech Update
The market seems mixed and searching for direction. It seems hard to see a clear trend in the sector or within the sector. Some large caps are strong and others weak. Some SMID are strong and others weak. Perhaps this is the start of my “stock picking” thesis playing out but it could also simply […]
November 9 Biotech Update
My daughter made it through surgery with flying colors, so I have time for a quick note. I do not want to focus on individual companies but a broader theme that could be developing. Are we seeing the end of biotech leadership, why, and what does it mean? 1. Broadly speaking, I would argue that […]
November 6 Biotech Update
Despite some additional M&A news the sector is off to a weak start. I suspect this eventually reverses today but would also take it as a strong signal if we remain weak or weaken further throughout the day. 1. It seems like only the day before the abstract release that I was talking about larger […]
November 4 Biotech Update
The sector certainly seems to be getting it legs back. The SMID are finally starting to get a bid (even if it is partly driven by short covering but it has to start somewhere). In addition, earnings have been good and now we are entering a period of both data catalysts and a seasonally positive […]
November 2 Biotech Update
We finally get a merger Monday of sorts although only one of the deals is a public company. It will be telling to a certain extent how the SMIDs respond to the deals. I (and many others) thought that we need a pickup in M&A to spark additional interest in the space as well as […]
October 29 Biotech Update
As I noted before, it appears that the sector is improving and while I would not say it has turned, I would argue that the odds are better that the next large move will be higher rather than lower. This would especially be the case if we start to see M&A pick up. The potential […]
October 28 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be getting its feet but unevenly and in fits and starts. It looks like the large caps are probably the most consistent outperformers with some strong SMID names but as a group it is much more mixed. We continue to be in earnings seasons and likely explains the outperformance of the […]
October 26 Biotech Update
I really thought the week would start with more of a bang but it seems much more like a whimper. Sure we had more VRX news/speculation but we really did not learn anything that new. The bears are bears and the bulls are hiding and most have no clue what exactly is going on. The […]
October 23 Biotech Update
Unfortunately, the discussion for the sector continues to revolve around specialty pharma. This has brought the sector down (although perhaps not down as far as we would have thought, so perhaps that is a positive) and generated significant underperformance to the broader market. At some point, the negative headlines for the sector will end and […]
October 21 Biotech Update
The sector continues to be under pressure, although we seem to be staying above the recent lows which remains critical. We are entering earnings season and it will be interesting to see if earnings without M&A is enough to spark buying. My base case is good earnings will be enough to stop the decline but […]
