ASH starts soon and the sector needs some more positive news as it is really starting to lag. Outside of the initial election pop it has been pretty bad in terms of relative performance. To be fair, the news outside of the election has been failures and secondaries. Obviously the sector needs more than the […]
November 30 Biotech Update
We are in a lull before a flood of data arrives at the end of this week and then into ASH next week. There is not a lot of new but we did have some interesting moves yesterday that are worth talking about. 1. I have already talked about the BLUE/CELG BCMA CART data that […]
November 29 Biotech Update
It seems like the election move is taking a time out and some consolidation is happening. That is not surprising given the move and (at least for the sector) the news. Despite the pause, we are heading into a historically good period for the sector as well as a time of increased M&A activity. I […]
November 28 Biotech Update
I vaguely (not really vaguely) recall noting last Tuesday that we were likely done with news unless some company wanted to sneak bad news in right before the holiday. I was correct but wrong. We had two majors pieces of negative news (LLY and JUNO) and surprisingly the sector managed to hold up relatively well […]
November 22 Biotech Update
More of the same in terms of slow news and likely decreasing volumes into the weekend. We do have a couple pieces of fundamental news to talk about but nothing groundbreaking in its importance. 1. The most meaningful is the removal of the partial clinical hold of the head and neck combo trials for AZN. […]
November 21 Biotech Update
An exciting return to the sector for me and I mean that sarcastically. Not really much to talk about heading into this Thanksgiving week and I would not be surprised if the only news we see this week is from companies trying to sneak out bad news. Volume should be low with drifting price action […]
November 16 Biotech Update
Again we do not have a ton of news but we had one of our first year end catalysts, which I will talk about. In terms of the year end catalysts, this one is pretty low on the list of importance but it was certainly one we were watching. 1. MDCO released their data at […]
November 15 Biotech Update
The initial move from the election seems long in the legs and perhaps is ready to pause. We have seen a couple of companies do secondaries, which is a perfectly rational and reasonable response. It has been an awful environment to raise cash, so many need cash and this is a nice time to refill […]
November 14 Biotech Update
And we continue with the Trump effect in the sector. As I noted before this is going to be a longer term tailwind despite what people argue about the potential transitory nature. Yes, we will not go straight up and yes it is not 100% positive forever but this is a sector that has grossly […]
November 11 Biotech Update
The sector momentum continued and there is no reason to expect it will end soon. Of course, nothing goes straight up but as I noted before there are numerous tailwinds and if we can hit on the year end catalysts, then it could actually accelerate higher in the next couple months. So what could be […]
November 9 Biotech Update
There is not a lot of stock specific news but I want to spend some time today talking about the election results and its implications and then starting Friday I will move to talking about upcoming catalysts for the sector. The election results were clearly outside of expectations and not only did we not have […]
November 8 Biotech Update
This is going to be a very interesting test for the sector. There are two events that should crush the sector (or would have recently) but will it? Odds are Clinton will be elected President and we just had a slew of awful earnings and negative news. If we can hold up in the face […]
November 7 Biotech Update
Welcome to election week and stock performance across the board are going to be highly correlated. I suspect the move today is the pricing in of an increased probability of a Clinton victory. At this point, my expected outcome is a Clinton victory, Republicans hold the house, and the Senate is all but split up […]
November 4 Biotech Update
There has been nothing reasonable, rational, or predictable about the price action in the sector recently. The sell off yesterday on the ASH abstracts (supposedly the catalyst) is the height of irrational. This is not to say that there was no relevant data but 90%+ of the abstract data were either not new or not […]
November 2 Biotech Update
Any selling we see today cannot really be blamed on sentiment or the elections as we had our first day (in my opinion) of fundamentally bad earnings. Up to this point, it seems that the earnings were in-line to better than expectations but certainly not perfect. This is not the case for the big earnings […]
November 1 Biotech Update
We have more of the same with basically solid fundamental reports but certainly not perfect and I suspect it will lead to another day lower with the outperformer that will likely fade tomorrow. Despite heading into earnings season with low expectations, awful sentiment, and a large sell off, the market has chosen to focus on […]
October 31 Biotech Update
There is nothing that seems to help the sector. The clear sentiment headwind is the election and that is certainly plausible. A non-democratic sweep of the presidency, senate, and house should be good for the sector. Of course, everyone expects that so usually when everyone expects something the market does not act in that way. […]
October 28 Biotech Update
A week into earnings season and while it is not perfect, it is clearly better than the fears going in and the price action indicated. No company has really missed in a big way. A fair number of companies beat and raised and you had some positive clinical news sprinkled in. That being said the […]
October 26 Biotech Update
It looks like the sector is not responding well to decent news. As I noted yesterday nothing has had a perfect press release but given the selloff perfect news was clearly not priced in. To be clear, there is some positive price action on positive news but it seems very isolated and very susceptible to […]
October 25 Biotech Update
Earnings have started and so far nothing great but nothing horrible. In fact there were some notable misses but we may be at the point that misses will rally stocks given how low expectations have fallen. So not only do we need to pay attention to what the earnings say about the fundamentals of the […]
