Nothing has changed really in terms of politics. There is still talk coming out of Washington about health care reform not being dead and I do think they are still trying. The problem facing Trump is that without the savings from health care reform, the tax cuts in tax reform explode the deficit. In other […]
April 11 Biotech Update
We are inching closer to a major black swan as I noted earlier. This is keeping me very cautious about initiating new positions in size. Keep in mind that April 15th is the Day of the Sun (celebration of birthday of Kim il-sung), which is a period of tension with the North Korean government usually […]
April 10 Biotech Update
The weekend is over and we have another Monday with a noticeable lack of M&A. This is not an issue for the market (yet) but outside of the ALIOY deal this has been a bad year for M&A. These years happen but remember the role that a pick up in M&A played in sector calls […]
April 5 Biotech Update
I promised to talk about more stocks that are on my radar but I am going to change it up a little. I do not like to stray too far from biotech or political issues that touch on biotech but I want to highlight one black swan to watch. In addition, there was a big […]
April 4 Biotech Update
The sector had a little bit of a down draft late yesterday and I suspect that it is related to the news that TrumpCare may not be dead. Clearly there are actions being held to revive the legislation but we are likely a year plus from any real passage even if they are able to […]
April 3 Biotech Update
AACR is in full swing with a couple more days worth of data coming but so far there has not been anything thesis changing to the upside or downside. To be fair, we have more data expected in the next couple days but as I noted previously this tends to be an earlier stage conference. […]
March 31 Biotech Update
The sector in general seems to be drifting if not a slight negative bias but we are still seeing good news move stocks higher, which is not a bad setup into AACR. This tends to be an earlier stage conference, so less fundamental thesis changing data and more incremental. I will be interested to see […]
March 29 Biotech Update
Yesterday was the opposite of my market thesis but perhaps that was related to the new talk about healthcare reform not being dead. I would slightly increase the odds that a new bill is introduced and perhaps passed in the House but it would have to be significantly different to pass the Senate and that […]
March 28 Biotech Update
So an interesting day yesterday in that the sector outperformed the broader market (as I expected) but the broader market was not as weak. Obviously my market headwind/bio tailwind call is longer term so what happens day to day is not that meaningful (and it is not really an exceptionally high conviction call but simply […]
March 27 Biotech Update
We are back in a macro driven world (at least for the near term). The failure of TrumpCare will have two impacts on the sector. First, the odds of drug pricing reform in the near, short, or medium terms are now significantly lower. Trump wants (needs) a win and he is not going back to […]
March 24 Biotech Update
Do we have AHCA fatigue yet? It could end today if the House votes no but a yes vote likely means another couple months of debate as it moves to the Senate where it is a non-starter. What is interesting for the broader market is the claim by Trump that he would move on to […]
March 22 Biotech Update
We finally had a 1%+ down day in the market, so we can finally stop seeing on the tweets about how long it has been since a 1% sell off. This broader market weakness led to sector weakness- not surprisingly. Of course, this is right after Trump made another comment on drug pricing, so this […]
March 21 Biotech Update
While we are still seeing the residual impact of the PCSK9 news and events, I want to step back from that news and focus on some other companies/areas. Clearly it will take time for the news to settle into stocks but there has been some additional news. First, Trump talked about drug pricing (again) and […]
March 20 ESPR Update
A quick note on ESPR as I somehow missed the FDA news this morning that a couple of you kindly pointed out. This makes the move much more reasonable than I first thought. So what does this mean? First, the odds of the drugs approval are likely higher given the LDL lowering endpoint is easier […]
March 20 Biotech Update
Another week and another attempt at the 300 level on the IBB and another week with no real M&A. We are still dealing with the aftermath of the AMGN data and while there seems to be some recovery, I want to spend today talking about a potential implication that seems to have been flying under […]
March 17 Biotech Update
Well, this is not going to be a good day for the sector and that wall at 300 in the IBB is likely safe for now. The key culprit is going to be the AMGN outcomes data, which is a massive disappointment (for anyone outside of AMGN who apparently think it is great). While one […]
March 15 Biotech Update
The PARP wars have ramped up with the AZN data. This was important data for the PARP wars but sort of important for the sector more broadly as this is a new class of drugs that seemingly has an impressive impact on the lives of patients. I think the PCSK9 data later this week are […]
March 14 Biotech Update
The sector is on the edge of either breaking down or breaking out. While it is hard to have very strong conviction, I would lean towards a breakout especially given the potential news this week. Obviously the data can change where we move but I do think it will send a sign as to the […]
March 13 Biotech Update
Certainly getting some more news and events that could be driving the sector but nothing really thesis changing, we need to wait for the end of the week with the PCSK9 data. As we wait for that data, there are some interesting notes and company specific information that we can talk about. 1. KPTI was […]
March 10 Biotech Update
The sector has been interesting. Given the past 18 months, it feels easy to be bearish on every pullback consolidation but I am incrementally more positive. It is starting to feel more like a pause at an important level of resistance as opposed to the start of a large retracement. Obviously we likely need some […]
