The sector sort of held in there for the ASH hangover but was sort of hit or miss. With ASH winding down, we are seeing the winners selling shares and the losers trying to cut losses. At this point, it is either a wait for JPM or hope for some news out of nowhere. 1. […]
December 11 Biotech Update
There is no ASH hangover quite yet but it usually comes pretty quick after the conference. Perhaps this year will be different given that outside of a few good days, there was no real run up into the conference. There is a lot to talk about and so I will take the next couple days […]
December 8 Biotech Update
Finally, he sector responded well to good news and held those gains. That bodes well heading into ASH (assuming more positive news) but we obviously cannot give all the gains back today. There is not a lot of news heading into ASH but that is likely to change this weekend. 1. GILD bought a private […]
The Bitcoin Bubble
Bitcoin is a bubble. Bitcoin is overvalued. There is a lot of hysteria about bitcoin but that is from both those drinking the koolaid as well as those screaming bubble all the time. It is easy to look smart and snarky and call it a bubble but I refuse to believe the world is that […]
December 7 Biotech Update
I thought we would have to wait until ASH to get a good tell on the market but if the sector cannot hold onto gains today, then there is a real issue. There is good news across the board and different types of good news. These are the fundamental news days that are where investors […]
December 6 Biotech Update
The sector and stocks are going to give everyone whiplash. Despite their being some out performers, it seems like every move higher gets smashed later in the day. There are too many stocks to count that make a nice move higher only to end the day red. As I noted yesterday, it is unclear the […]
December 5 Biotech Update
I was quite wrong about the sector setting up well and it is not immediately clear to me why the sector did so poorly. I want to go through a couple of ideas today and there is probably no clear answer but it is something that is useful to think through. There is not a […]
December 4 Biotech Update
The sector is tied to macro but given the macro events (tax bill status and Flynn flipping) it is not surprising to see this. Ultimately, it is more likely that the fate of the tax bill will drive the market even if longer term the Flynn news might be more impactful but it is more […]
December 1 Biotech Update
It looks like the market and sector are going to be tied to the fate of the tax bill (at least that is how it seemed yesterday) and that makes sense given how many breaks it provides to businesses. The sector modestly outperformed the broader tech sector, which is likely some kind of catch up […]
November 29 Biotech Update
The sector seems to have gotten its footing a little and while that does not mean it will shoot higher, it does seem to have stopped the decline. As I noted before both ASH and JPM can be stock moving with JPM usually a very strong period for the sector as companies save good news […]
November 27 Biotech Update
Perhaps we are in the calm before the storm or people are still recovering from their Thanksgiving meals but the sector is off to a slow start to the week. Trading last week was not too bad even it was on low volume. We have one last potential catalyst this year with ASH coming soon […]
November 21 Biotech Update
Sentiment remains difficult in the sector but I think we are also close to the point that a reversal is due in that it is very difficult to get even more negative from these levels. For instance, JMP noted that in their index only 15 stocks gained last week versus 84 losing value and that […]
November 20 Biotech Update
The news is winding down as we get closer to the holidays but there is some news today. For the most part, I do not expect a lot of news but there could be an M&A push to end the year if bankers need more deals for their bonuses. That being said I think we […]
November 17 Biotech Update
We had a decent bounce yesterday and perhaps we will get a continuation. The sector is over sold as are a bunch of individual names. I am not convinced the bounce is the end of the selling but there were some names that I bought as even if this is not the bottom they are […]
November 15 Biotech Update
The sector continues to struggle and at least today we can blame the larger macro market but the fact is if the markets in general are going to correct, the sector is not going to hold up. I would not mind a broader correction as it likely would be the last leg in the biotech […]
November 13 Biotech Update
Another week and another noticeable lack of M&A. At this point, we are so use to nothing happening that it seems like a normal week (which it is). Even though I enter every week with the expectation that nothing will be done, it still surprises me that the large caps that are getting destroyed because […]
November 10 Biotech Update
We have our answer to what the sector wants to do as the number of large moves higher by the odd stock is over and the large days down continue. It certainly looks like the series of large positive moves were masking a much broader weakness as the trend now is to sell every SMID […]
November 8 Biotech Update
Today certainly has some interesting news for stocks I have talked about but unlikely to have an impact on the sector. In any case, it seems to be more of the same and there is still this odd effect in that there are very large moves in stocks but they always appear balanced and the […]
November 7 Biotech Update
Some news to start the day but nothing particularly thesis changing. The sector seemed to hold onto to some of its gains yesterday but more or less a treading water day. The next real sentiment test with perhaps fundamental news would be ASH in early December and perhaps we simply drift between now and then. […]
November 6 Biotech Update
Sort of a quiet start to the week, which is good and bad. Ideally, we would like to see some nice fundamental news to start the week but given the lack of news and flat broader markets, it might give us a sense of the underlying bid (or offer) in the sector. At this point, […]
