Yesterday was not a great day for the sector but we seem to be bouncing back today. It appears that the next move will not be easy in that this churn and volatility is going to be difficult to play. I still think we go with the trend (which is higher) and ignore the near […]
March 27 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a nice little rally in the sector, which given the sharp pullback was not completely unexpected. The more interesting question is whether that rally can be built upon over the next couple days. The sentiment from Friday and Monday was so negative that many are likely expecting more selling. That is certainly possible […]
March 26 Biotech Update
The sector has had a nice sharp pullback that has challenged sentiment a little. I was a little surprised about how quickly sentiment got negative yesterday as we have had a pretty solid move higher. It seems that sentiment is a little more fragile under the surface than I thought. In some ways that is […]
March 21 Biotech Update
This will certainly be a bad day for the large cap but I would not be surprised to see the XBI outperform if not eventually turn green as M&A fever hits the space. The BIIB failure is large and important for a number of reasons, which I will go through today. 1. While many did […]
March 19th Biotech Update
The XBI seems to be churning early this week and while we did not get the run that was possible, it is not bad to sit at these levels for a little to consolidate. We have been setting higher lows and look to be in the process of setting a higher high and that should […]
March 14 (Pi day) biotech update
A nice late day rally yesterday was a good sign. That was what I was waiting for after a morning of listless direction. It is looking more and more likely that the sector wants to test the recent high in the mid $93s in relative short order. Given the strength it would not stun me […]
March 13 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a good day for the sector and we are right back to what could be some resistance on the XBI at $90. There was some good news coming out that sort of stoked the move and it will be interesting to see if we pause today or extend. Clearly we are pausing in […]
March 12 Biotech Update
I am finally back and the sector appears to have pulled back a little. I do not see this a particularly bad pull back as it looks to have closed a gap and bounced off of it. In my mind, it appears to be setting up as a successful test of the recent breakout assuming […]
February 28th Biotech Update
The sector continues to hang out at these levels and my sense is that the longer we wait to go, the more likely we consolidate the move higher. I do find it a little odd that we have not seen a more clear move (up or down) but it likely means that this level will […]
February 27 Biotech Update
We still have not gapped and went, so I would think that possibility is lowering but I would not completely discount it. We have some positive news today in the SMID space that could trigger another round of buying but time is running out for the go part of the gap and go. 1. SRPT […]
February 26 Biotech Update
The sector has gapped above the range with merger Monday. Interestingly the last gap we saw in the XBI (JPM week) saw a gap and run instead of a test of the gap. While it is not impossible to see a similar gap and run in this case, we are already hitting what could be […]
February 21 Biotech Update
Resistance is acting like resistance. It looked early that we might be peaking above it but clearly that is not the case. These sort of false breakouts (and breakdowns) are killers in range bound markets as it can get one to trade too early. My mantra in these scenarios is that the sector will be […]
February 19 Biotech Update
The sector might be peaking its head above the top end of the range. The ideal set up for breakout are moves above the range and then successfully testing the upper end of the previous range where it would now act as support instead of resistance. At this point, we look to be moving out […]
February 15th Biotech Update
Not surprisingly we are in a post earnings lull. While there are still earnings being posted, the bulk of the major ones have been reported. We are also seeing the expected uptick in secondaries, which is later than usual as a result of the government shutdown. In any case, there is nothing particularly sector moving […]
February 13th Biotech Update
The sector continues to do well this week on not necessarily all positive news. My refrain will continue to be that we are range bound until proven otherwise and so it should not surprise anyone that is still my position. 1. On the positive side, EXEL announced pretty strong numbers and one could argue that […]
February 12 Biotech Update
We have some interesting news today (positive and negative) with some interesting read through. I still think the base case is that the sector is in a range until proven otherwise and there is nothing in the price action to indicate anything different. 1. The biggest news is obviously the GILD miss on NASH. This […]
February 7 Biotech Update
We start off a little weak this morning, which is not completely unexpected given that we are at the top end of the recent range. Obviously it would be nice to see a breakout above the range to start another leg higher but range bound trading after the recent run is not bad at this […]
February 6 Biotech Update
The sector faded yesterday and seems to be in a little range between $80 and $86. This is not necessarily a bad thing after the big bounce we had. Sitting in this range resetting the chart and building a base of support is not bad for the longer term. It is certainly better than charging […]
February 5 Biotech Update
There might be reason for optimism in the sector. The XBI seems to be breaking above its recent range and the $80 level might have been support for this new move. That would certainly be the best case scenario as it would be a higher low ($80) and one that is a little higher than […]
February 1st Biotech Update
The sector seems to have gotten its footing in a way I was not expecting. Perhaps there is a bigger underlying bid than I thought. Perhaps the dovish turn in the Fed has put risk on again. In either case, it looks like $80 on the XBI acted as support and now the question is […]
