A good finish to the week so far in the sector. I will try and keep this quick and to the point as it is a little delayed because of waiting on the PFE data. The wait appears to have been worth it. 1. The PFE data looking inferior on both efficacy and safety. The […]
June 27 Biotech Update
A good start to the morning for the sector, although it seems mostly in line with the broader markets. Given the performance the past couple days, however, I am happy to see it up with the broader markets, especially given that lack of any real news (although we are still potentially in the glow of […]
June 25 Biotech Update
So that was unexpected. First, the market is down and sector is higher. Second, we got another large merger to digest. Obviously I will focus on the deal and its implications. 1. I need to go back and listen the conference call so there might be some additional insight later this week but this deal […]
June 24 Market Update
The sector is in an interesting spot. Tensions with Iran remain elevated but did not escalate, which should lead to a risk on move and while the market was tepidly higher the sector is clearly underperforming. Usually risk-on benefits the sector and while one could argue that the elevated macro tensions remain a drag, there […]
June 20th Biotech Update
The sector continues to do well but we may have some additional macro coming with the Iran downing of an American drone in international waters. The market does not seem too upset yet with the situation but that could switch pretty quickly. We are entering a pretty slow time for the market so a not […]
June 18th Biotech Update
We got a very nice follow through during the day yesterday for the sector. That is exactly what you wanted to see and ideally it continues for the next couple days. We certainly do not need it to be as strong as it was yesterday but we need to break the strong day followed immediately […]
June 17 Biotech Update
It is a good start to the week with merger Monday coming back the sector albeit with names we were not expecting. The XBI has been in a nice tight range and while we are still in that range this morning, I would look for a breakout about $84. I am not exactly calling for […]
June 14 Biotech Update
It is Friday again, so be on the lookout for those rumors or late day runners. A slow start to the morning in terms of price action but we are basically trading with the market (although the IBB showing some small relative strength compared to SPY and XBI). 1. There is an interesting contrast with […]
June 13 Biotech Update
I am back but honestly we are entering the summer quite period with little news to drive the sector higher or lower. We did get a break from the macro, which gave an interesting view of the underlying trends in the sector but outside of that it is low volume summer trading. Of course, macro […]
June 6 Biotech Update
Nothing has really changed. Oddly the sector is really underperforming the market today at the start, which is not good but at least we are seeing an end to the tight correlations. I still think everything is going to move with news on the Mexican tariffs. If they go into effect, then everything goes down. […]
June 4 Biotech Update
Are we bouncing or starting a new trend higher? Both are plausible explanations for the recent move as the selling has been pretty consistent and so a dead cat bounce was at least due. The sector outperformed yesterday, although it is modestly underperforming today. I still think we are in a broader macro driven market […]
June 3 Biotech Update
Guess what? The macro continues to dominate but it might actually work for us this week. If Mexico can work out a deal with the US, then the market is set to move a lot higher. If not, then expect more downside. Given the amount of disruption that the tariffs would cause, I suspect a […]
May 31 Biotech Update
Macro, Macro, Macro. No this is not a complete repeat of yesterday but it sure is looking like one. It would be really nice to have at least some time without new macro concerns but you trade the market you have not the market you want to have. At the very least we have ASCO […]
May 30 Biotech Update
Macro, Macro, Macro. I am sort of getting sick of it but at least it is working to the upside today (at least for now). Hopefully with ASCO coming this weekend the sector can break out of this tight correlation with the broader market but that remains to be seen. Not a lot of news […]
May 29 Biotech Update
So I thought we were moving out of a macro dominated market but apparently spoke too soon. While China and Iran seem to be less and less in the headlines, larger macro concerns over the economy seem to be replacing them as the macro concern. The market appears in a precarious position and while we […]
May 28 Biotech Update
So a relatively slow start to the week. I suspect many hoped for a buyout or two after the long weekend but no such luck. We do have a potential run up into ASCO next week as a catalyst, although it seems at this point that the majority of presentations will be marginal updates as […]
May 21st Biotech Update
And today we are green with the rest of the market. There is some biotech news but at this point the sector is trading simply as a slightly higher beta version of the general market (it is a little more red on down days and a little more green on up days). On the positive […]
May 20 Biotech Update
China and trade seemed to be fading into the background potentially setting this week up for a decline of the highly correlated macro markets but Iran and the Middle East have stepped into the void. While this could be a major issue for the markets, it is also one that could fade a lot quicker […]
May 17th Biotech Update
We remain in a macro driven market even as the ASCO abstracts dropped this week. There were some interesting data that came out of the abstracts but certainly nothing so compelling to move the sector especially against this macro backdrop. At some point, the China trade wars issue will be priced into the market and […]
May 15th Biotech Update
Well, yesterday ending up being a good day with the XBI eventually following the individual stocks but this continues to be a highly correlated macro market. The broader market seems to be following a clearly defined downward channel (which it hit the upper limit yesterday) and given that the broad market is driving everything until […]
