The sector continued to underperform. I suspect part of this is a continuation of the overall underperformance and part is increasing fear around Warren’s rise in the polls. That is not going away anytime soon. Warren is not going to suddenly fall off a cliff and it is not as if she is the only […]
September 25th Biotech Update
I sound like a repeating record but the news have been pretty slow. I thought it was possible that the sector would break out higher but clearly that was not the case. It will be interesting to see how we respond today as we are now closer to some support. The market honestly seems a […]
September 24 Biotech Update
News remains slow but the macro remains in the background. There is a chance that China trade tensions ease (only before rising again) and Iran is fading into the memory (but this is not over yet). Unfortunately, the market is rallying a little but the sector seems stuck in the mud. It is a little […]
September 23 Biotech Update
Again another slow start to a week. We did survive the weekend without the macro getting worse. I am still not convinced we are out of the woods on the Middle East yet but for now it seems to have faded into the background. It is hard to predict when it will come to the […]
September 18 Biotech Update
Not much happening in the sector or markets outside of the ongoing issues in the Middle East. We will likely get a press conference today that blames Iran for the attacks but that does not help answer the critical questions, which is the response. There really seem to be few good responses as a kinetic […]
September 17 Biotech Update
So I was thinking that any response to the attacks on Saudi Arabia would happen sooner rather than later but I am no longer convinced that remains the case. Clearly Saudi Arabia was taken by surprise and so it needs to tighten its defenses before escalating the situation (if they choose to escalate). A kinetic […]
September 16 Biotech Update
It is looking like a macro week, although this could resolve itself fairly quickly. The attacks on the ARAMCO production facility is likely to have long term effects on oil but whether or not this leads to a broader conflict should be decided in a couple of days. Obviously there will be some response but […]
September 11th Biotech Update
(Sorry for the delay. The site worked but we had an issue with posting new articles. It is now fixed) The resilience of the sector is a little surprising and could pay off. It had been looking like a breakdown candidate but never followed through on that potential. Now it is looking like a breakout […]
September 10 Biotech Update
Surprise. The sector is weak. I am a little surprised that we are not see a faster sell off as clearly there is no momentum and we have broken support. This really seems like a nice and orderly sell off and this is not necessarily good. The selling does not end when there is no […]
September 9th Biotech Update
We have some interesting news to start the week and of course it leads to a flat sector with the broader market green. It seems like the sector is underperforming and again I think that is odd given how well the earnings came through last quarter. Perhaps we are close enough to the election that […]
September 5th Biotech Update
I have class about to begin but I want to put out a quick note on the news. GBT announced that the FDA has accepted the NDA for voxelotor with a PDUFA date of February 26th, 2020. The stock is moving on the news. I do not see the filing as the real news as […]
September 4th Biotech Update
The sector is in an odd spot. It seems to be right under a major support but has not quite broken down. I suspect we cannot remain at these levels for much longer, although we twice went down to the $78 level on the XBI. Given that the $78 twice was tested and held that […]
September 3 Biotech Update
We remain in the summer doldrums but more than that we are stuck in the macro issues. Between a potential recession to the China trade war, it is virtually impossible to get through a week without something whipping the sector and market. Today we might actually be getting to a point where China starts to […]
August 29th Biotech Update
I will keep this short and sweet as there is little news to talk about. On the positive side, the sector seems to be doing better and while I would not call it a false breakdown yet, the possibility remains. Clearly we need a continuation rally but we got exactly what we needed yesterday. Today […]
August 28 Biotech Update
I think today is the day. The sector is at a very precarious positon. It has dropped below what was support but I still think it has a chance to make that into a false breakdown. A rally above that previous support level and one that strengthens as the day continues is crucial. The worst […]
August 26 Biotech Update
Market starts the week higher but I do not trust it as there is the old saying that markets never bottom on Fridays. To be fair futures were down a lot and have rallied before the market opened but I remain suspicious of the green open. The ideal scenario for a robust turnaround would be […]
August 23 Biotech Update
So the sector feels a lot worse than the chart indicates. We are right around support at $80 and that seems to have been holding. We are approaching, however, a decision point. We can break below what is support for a leg down or break out of the downward trending making that look like a […]
August 21 Biotech Update
Broadly speaking the sector and market are doing well. Sentiment has been pretty negative and there were some macro concerns. This seems to be easing a bit, so a rally might be in the offing but how many times have we been burning at the start of rallies with some new macro concern jumping to […]
August 20th Biotech Update
So I do not want to spend a lot of time on macro or the sector as it is the same but we do have some really important news to discuss that is both stock and sector important. 1. SRPT received a CRL. This was a surprise both to me and the company. According to […]
August 19th Biotech News
The market seems to be in a good mood to start the week and I would argue it remains macro driven. I think the hope is that central banks and governments are about to undertake a series of actions meant to stimulate the global economy. Of course, these sort of expectations can be like sugar […]
