We keep smacking our heads against the resistance above and the more times we hit it the better the chance it breaks. The sector news has been positive and the broader market is still grinding higher, so the broader fundamentals appear supportive of a break. The flip side is that if we cannot breakout within […]
May 7th Biotech Update
Earnings continue and the themes are basically the same. They are generally good if not better than expectations but they remain cautious for the rest of the year. The sector is certainly rebounding from the selling late last week but there seems to be this odd late day selling despite strength during most of the […]
May 5th Biotech Update
So it is looking like the late last week selling was a pause that refreshes and the demand for the sector continues. We still likely have a wall of resistance at $100 on the XBI, so it is not stunning that we paused when we reached that level. A sustained move above that level would […]
May the Force Be With Biotech Update
The trend is you friend until it is not anymore. We had a nice strong uptrend that appears to have broken. This obviously does not mean that we are moving to the low but that the next direction is not precisely clear. We needed to digest that recent move as it was almost straight up […]
May 1st Biotech Update
We finally get two days in a row of the same move but unfortunately it is down. This is not completely surprising as it is completely reasonable that the sharp move higher in the market needs to pause and/or retrench a little. Of course, the tension and worry will be whether or not this is […]
April 30th Biotech (and MLP) Update
We continue with a back and forth week. I think we have alternated up and down days this entire week. This continues day and clearly we have a week of indecision. This is not necessarily bullish. Yes, it is bullish to basically digest a move higher with sideways action but the news this week has […]
April 29th Biotech Update
Yesterday was a retracement day and seemed almost like a rotation out of what was working (biotech) into lagging sectors (banking). Given the strength in the sector it should be able to handle the retracement before continuing the move higher. The only worry is the XBI compared to the IBB. The IBB had made new […]
April 27th Biotech Update
A new week and it is off to a good start. One debate I often have with myself is whether or not the bottom is in. It is an important question but really unknowable at this point. If HCQ or remdisivr or some other drug comes out as a reasonable treatment for COVID between now […]
April 24th Biotech (and MLP) Update
It seems like the market is slowly getting back to some sort of normalcy. The daily massive moves are slowly becoming more measured moves. Yes, volatility is still elevated and we still get large moves but the days of daily 5%-10% moves higher or lower with even larger swings seems to be slowly moving into […]
April 23 Biotech (and MLP) Update
Good news for investors. Stocks have never been red when weekly jobless claims were over 3 million and with the 4+ million claims this week, we should be fine. Clearly we are in abnormal times but simply looking the at the price action and ignoring the broader economic fundamentals, the market is strong. That seems […]
April 21st Biotech (and MLP) Update
The pattern (losses after hours and gains during the day) held yesterday and we are testing it again today. It is odd and not like some kind of trend we see on a chart, so it is not clear to me what the signs would be that the pattern will end. Plus, I am not […]
April 20th Biotech (and MLP) Update
So it looked like last week finally decided the next move would be higher but this morning we start with some weakness. I would not be surprised, however, to see the market to reverse during the day. I saw an analysis that showed almost all of the downside on the selloff the past couple months […]
April 17th Biotech (and some MLP) Update
It took the whole week but perhaps we are finally get the move out the of range. I say maybe even though we are having a strong move on what could be good fundamental macro news. That being said I would not assume that this is real until we see the close. It would certainly […]
April 16th Biotech Update
It is a week of indecision despite having thought it would be a week of decision. It happens I guess but we are whiplashing higher and lower but, honestly, if I ignored the larger macro context and just looked at the XBI the chart the past couple weeks, it seems clearly in an uptrend. We […]
April 15th Biotech Update
Well, today is a day where we should have turned off the alarmed, rolled over in bed, and went back to sleep. Certainly not a good start after what was a pretty strong Tuesday. Nothing has really changed fundamentally, so it seems investors are trying to figure out where the next move will and pile […]
April 13th Biotech Update
A mixed start to the week, which seems fitting given the technical analysis that Joe published last night. I highly recommend that you read it as it lays out the next move in the market and I agree that we seem to be at a decision point. Perhaps we do not get the decision this […]
April 9th Biotech Update
We live in a macro world for sure. Another strong day as FOMO is coming to the forefront driving the market higher and higher. Is the market mis-pricing risk at this point? Perhaps but looking at the FXI it bottomed pretty early into their epidemic and that is probably a good analogy for the US […]
April 8th Biotech Update
Yesterday was interesting in that we had that reversal from the morning highs but it did not seem to spook the bulls as much as I would have thought. Today we have another move higher in the morning but let us see if this one actually sticks. It seems like we might be at some […]
April 7 Biotech Update
So the crisis is over! Or at least that is the way the markets are behaving. It is pretty clear that we are having a reversal of the COVID sell-offs. The market is moving higher including and perhaps being led by regional banks and all those COVID related names (whether it be treatments, PPE, or […]
April 6th Biotech Update
A good start to the week for sure. While it is a nice move higher, we remains at critical levels that could be resistance. For instance $80 on the XBI will likely be important to break above. It would be something to move above today given that we only reached it on the big spike […]
