The sector is in pullback mode. The past two weeks have been pretty frustrating as the sector has not been able to get any traction and every move higher is met by consistent selling pressure. I still think the base case at this point is that we are in a trend higher and if that […]
September 13th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week but its early and hopefully we can get some momentum. One potential issue is that we have not really had much M&A to follow up on the TRIL deal that generated excitement in the sector. I do not think we are there yet but at some point if […]
September 10th Biotech Update
I think the sector is holding up well, especially given the relatively negative news flow this week. That negative news continued yesterday but so far today has not been too bad. I think that speaks well to the underlying sentiment in the sector and adds to my confidence that we are in an uptrend that […]
September 9th Biotech Update
The low of yesterday got us into the $130 range on the XBI and this could be the place where the chart resets and we place that higher low. There is nothing that can happen today to definitively put in that higher low (well, I guess if we get above $137 and set a higher […]
September 8th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week with no additional M&A to juice the sector and the news that has come out has not been that great. It seems inevitable that we are going to get that pullback given the lack of deals and negative news flow and so the question is how much of […]
September 3rd Biotech Update
It seems clear to me that we have broken out of the range and have a nice little uptrend going on. We still have to have a pullback that resets the short term stochastics and allows us to put in a higher low (and then followed by a higher high). When that happens it will […]
September 1st Biotech Update
I am back, although I am lucky to have power as most of Baton Rouge is still without power (which means without AC when the heat index is over 100 degrees). I have not been able to follow the sector too closely but it looks like we are having a nice little breakout with some […]
August 27th Biotech Update
Still not a lot of news in the sector. The XBI basically pushed up to the upper end of the range and is now pausing/retracing. The question is what happens after the pause? Is it a pause that refreshes and allows for a breakout or is it the start of the retracement to the lower […]
August 25th Biotech Update
We lost a little bit of the momentum yesterday but we have had a short strong move and so a little pause is not crazy. Of course a little pause to refresh is different than a move back towards the lower end of the range. Yes, my assumption will remain that we are in that […]
August 23rd Biotech Update
What is happening? Do we actually have M&A that could be more broadly meaningful for the sector? I think we might actually have had one. Obviously we need to see how the sector ultimately reacts to the deal but it is setup as being really good for the sector and not just for one day […]
August 19th Biotech Update
Yesterday did not end well but hopefully the recent lows hold and we get a bounce. I still think as long as the lows hold we could work under the assumption that we are range bound, although I would certainly prefer if we were hanging out near the upper bound of the range as opposed […]
August 18th Biotech Update
Not a ton of more that is going on in the sector. It was certainly nice to see the green but we really need that momentum to continue. I still think the sector is best described as either range bound or potentially starting a new downtrend. I lean towards the range bound but it also […]
August 17th Biotech Update
Not a lot of news and the sector is in a precarious spot. It had a chance to breakout and start to form a new bull trend but it failed. That failure does not mean a new bear trend but it did mean a test of the recent lows, which is where we are today. […]
August 13th Biotech Update
Today could be a day of decision in terms of the sector (and some stocks). The XBI seems to have a little pennant forming and it would be nice to see a breakout over the $130 level where that should lead to a continuation next week. Of course, there is still some room for indecision […]
August 12th Biotech Update
I painted such a nice story yesterday with a setup that was going to move us higher into a long awaited uptrend and then the sector did what the sector has been doing all year. I still think we are setup to get a bull market going but nothing is going to be easy for […]
August 11th Biotech Update
Low key, I think the sector might be turning the corner. I am not convinced and there is work to be done but the XBI looks like it could be setting up higher lows and, if we get above $130, higher highs. I think at the very least the clear downtrend has become a lot […]
August 9th Biotech Update
A sort of flat opening for the week, which is not ideal but it certainly could be worse. We have earnings this week but there is not anything this week that should be thesis changing for the sector. Obviously earnings can be important for individual stocks but I do not foresee anything coming out of […]
August 6th Biotech Update
The sector has a real chance to change the narrative and sentiment. Yesterday we broke above the recent lower high (just barely but we were above it for a little). That breaks the clear downtrend but obviously does not mean that it is over. If we can reverse higher today and build off of that […]
August 5th Biotech Update
Things got a little better for the sector with some green but we really need to get some momentum and accelerate to the upside. It is too easy for the bears to sell any rally and short without any real fear that the sector might move against a short position (or move against it more […]
August 4th Biotech Update
I have to say yesterday was pretty disappointing. We finally get some M&A and while it is not massive it is in a hot therapeutic modality and the sector trades lower. One would have thought that would have been enough to at least get a little rally if not something more meaningful. Perhaps it is […]
