I am a little surprised with the reversal yesterday. The lack of M&A and the news not being that great was setting the sector up to break to new lows. The fact that we were able to reverse is quite encouraging. Of course, we have all seen this picture before and we have routinely been […]
January 10th Biotech Update
Well, if you thought JPM 2021 was a disappointment you had not seen JPM 2022. While there can still be individual stock news I think the lack of any significant deals means that M&A is not going to be a theme in this conference. I guess the one advantage we have this year is that […]
January 7th Biotech Update
We should be in the calm before the storm as I do not see a company releasing news today. If you were going to announce something to get eyeballs before the conference then you more likely PRed earlier in the week. Releasing something Friday afternoon (outside of something bad to bury the news) does not […]
January 6th Biotech Update
The sector is not having a good start to the year. I saw someone post a chart that compared the performance of the XBI pre-JPM to how it perform during and after JPM. It was really not a strong relationship but in the years where the XBI was red pre-JPM it tended to do poorly […]
January 5th Biotech Update
Well, the New Year started off so well but it feels a lot like last year. To be fair that is not completely surprising as simply changing the calendar does not alter the fundamentals of the sector. Yesterday (and the early morning today) feels like rotation in the belief that Omicron will not crash the […]
January 4th Biotech Update
Yesterday ended up being a good day but we have seen this before and to really turn the page we need to have multiple good days in a row. So while it was nice to see and was a good start to the new year, it will take more than a single day to convince […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021. JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data. Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]
December 22nd Biotech Update
It seems to me that the sector is settling into a lull with the markets as we get to Christmas and then New Years. We managed to get out a small rally yesterday and have the chance to do it again today as we start red. While I would like to see more momentum to […]
December 21st Biotech Update
The sector is really trying to confuse me. I thought the least likely scenario was going to be a green day for the sector and a red day for the market and the second least likely would be a red day for the sector and green for the market. It seemed to me that they […]
December 20th Biotech Update
We had a good end to last week but we are really just bouncing around at the recent lows. I suspect we are going to be moving with the market in that if the market rallies the sector moves higher and perhaps outperforms but if the market breaks down we break the lows and likely […]
December 16th Biotech Update
Is it really as simple as interest rates? All of the thinking through the sector and fundamental analysis and the sector rallied hard on a somewhat more dovish (or less aggressive) Fed. It looks like the trading yesterday also sets up the potential for a double bottom assuming that we can continue this rally and […]
December 15th Biotech Update
It really seems like we are at the point of the bear market that nothing really matters. Typically we talk about M&A or data or launches as being catalysts that could bring interest back into the sector. Nothing seems to work at this point. There is no big push for drug price reform. We have […]
December 13th Biotech Update
We finally got a merger Monday and this should boost the sector. So far the sector is doing well in a generally bad market environment and hope this continues. There are certainly some non-sector related risks to the market that would hit biotech but as long as they remain muted, we should be able to […]
December 10th Biotech Update
We did not get the three days of momentum, which is disappointing. I understand we had two good days and perhaps in the immediate term we were overbought but one the way down it was relentless and so it is not crazy to think that if we are reversing there could be a long streak […]
December 9th Biotech Update
We had a day that built some momentum and we barely eked out a higher intraday high but we need more and we need to get to that $120-$121 range. Given how much we have sold off and the relative underperformance that should be pretty easy to reach in a bounce back rally. Assuming we […]
December 8th Biotech Update
We finally had our bounce start but yesterday has to be the start. If we end up giving it back today that is not a good sign. Starting the morning red is OK but we need to close green and build on the momentum that was started yesterday. There is no reason that the bounce […]
December 7th Biotech Update
So we did not have a bad day yesterday, although that only really is true if you look at the absolute performance and not the relative performance. That being said it was still better than what we have seen recently. We are set for a green start to the day and have some positive news […]
December 6th Biotech Update
We started lower this morning which is not that bad. I think if we rallied off the start then we likely give it up but a dip to flush out the frustrated traders (and let us be honest that is all of us at this point) might clear the deck for a really rally later […]
December 3 Biotech Update
The sector remains the most painful of all sectors. We got a little rally yesterday only to be crushed this morning. This sort of trading is very frustrating especially because the sector is so oversold that there should be some dead cat bounce rally coming at the very least. One can see the move today […]
December 2nd Biotech Update
The sector is good at one thing and that is creating despair and frustration. The selloff has just been relentless and this is very much sentiment related. You can have relentless selling when fundamentals change, i.e. the energy sector at the start of the pandemic when the economy was shut down. There is nothing happening […]
