The whiplash continues. A good day yesterday and weakness today. On the positive, it could be the case that we are continuing to build that messy bottom in the sector and so while I would like to see a nice clear uptrend, a long base building where we bounce around but do not make lower […]
February 14th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
I think the market and sector is in a holding pattern until we see what happens with Russia and the Ukraine. US intelligence indicates an attack this week (with some details indicating a false flag on Tuesday and attack on Wednesday). If we can get through this week without an attack then perhaps some of […]
February 10th Biotech Update
The sector had been doing well but the inflation data this morning was worse than expected both year on year and month on month. This increases rate increase expectations and higher rates has been lowering the sector. At some point, however, one has to think that rate increases would be priced into the market. How […]
Feb9th Biotech Update
The sector is doing well this week and hopefully we can keep it up. Not a lot of sector changing news but there is enough news that if one was looking for a reason to buy there are reasons. I still think it is less about the fundamentals at this point and more about the […]
February 7th Biotech Update
A good start to the week and we are still in the middle of earnings. Obviously the sector has been oversold and it is at least due for a dead cat bounce. It is also possible that last week was the start of the messy bottoming process. I am not sure even the market knows. […]
February 4th Biotech Update
So we have not broken down which leaves the messy bottoming process still the potential pattern. Today will be sort of interesting from a market and sector perspective with the strong jobs report. The jobs report was unexpectedly strong and I assume that will increase rates and rate hike expectations. We know that the sector […]
February 3rd Biotech (and MLP update)
I think we are at the point where it might not be about whether we break out of the downtrend and more at the point of whether or not this is part of a messy bottoming process or setting up a lower low. The broader markets are clearly not helping the sector and if the […]
February 2nd Biotech Update
The sector actually put together a couple of good days in a row but today is back to its underperformance. I would not give up on the sector given that it is still early in the day and the general market seems a little supportive of a reversal. Also even if the sector has changed […]
January 31st Biotech Update
I may have bottomed the sector. I do not remember what day it was but I talked about the sector possibly needing a sort of crash to bottom and get that seller exhaustion that would mark a bottom. The sector has done OK since then but of course this pattern has happened before. There as […]
January 28th Biotech Update
So it seems like the sector will not be building off of the reversals earlier in the week. We can point to a number of potential factors like the fed and interest rates, the correction in the broader markets, the risk of conflict in Europe, or the spate of clinical holds this week. I am […]
January 27th Biotech Update
Yesterday had all the setup to signal a turning of the tide for the sector but it fell apart. Of course, the Fed was the cause and the sector does not like increasing costs of capital. There was nothing really that new in the Fed news but it seems like the reminder that rates will […]
January 26th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
We did not end completely green the other day but we had two really impressive drops and reversals in a row. It will be awhile before the market can top Monday and even though Tuesday still ended red it was a signal that the bottom may be in at least in the short term. Those […]
January 24th Biotech Update
Well, we have seen this show way too many times. The sector is absolutely bidless and while there does not seem to be panic per se there is an absolute indifference to the selling. To me it just looks like no interest whatsoever to buy the sector and no one remains in size that can […]
January 21st Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
Not a lot to write at this point as we are past JPM and coming up to earnings season. The market is just relentless at this point and while we bounced off the opening low, the rule of thumb is that markets never bottom on a Friday. There have been so many strange aspects of […]
January 20th Biotech Update
Not much new is going on at this point. The sector does not look good and one should think there is more downside but it is already stretched to the downside. The selling just seems relentless so far and at some point one has to ask where the marginal sellers are coming from. The generalists […]
January 19th Biotech Update
Do you have whiplash yet? Yesterday was and I fully expected a bloodbath to open the market today and I was thinking that could setup a nice tradable low (the old gap lower to really push an extremely oversold market to ludicrously oversold) but opening a little higher today makes it less clear. I am […]
January 18th Biotech Update
So it looked really bad last Friday and it was quite the comeback rally. Unfortunately it seems like the broader market is not looking very good and I cannot imagine a scenario with a broader market/risk off move and the sector somehow moves higher. I guess one can never say never but it seems exceptionally […]
January 14th Biotech Update
It is not going well for the sector. There just seem to be no buyers at any levels. I am not sure what will bring the buyers back. Obviously the biggest component is M&A but keep in mind the sector reaction after MRK bought XLRN. I have a hard time thinking through big risks. Drug […]
January 13th Biotech (and Energy) Update
The sector cannot help itself and stress investors. We are back at the critical level of support and if it breaks then I think there is significantly more downside. My view is that support will hold until proven otherwise (just as resistance will hold until proven otherwise). Given the lack of really positive news or […]
January 12th Biotech Update
I think the big news that was going to drop this week has dropped. There are still a lot of companies I am going to be following up with so there is still plenty to write about but I do not big new news coming. Given the lack of M&A and some negative news the […]
