The data seem to indicate that inflation has not clearly broken and the Fed continues to talk about rising rates and keeping them high until it breaks. I think I saw that expectations are now that rates peak in June 2023, which is longer than the previous expectation of March 2023. As long as the […]
November 3rd Biotech Update
Guess what? The Fed speaks and the market declines (along with the sector). As I said the earnings season has been quite good for the sector but as I have also said one should not try and fight the Fed. As long as the perception is higher rates for longer, then I do not see […]
November 2nd Biotech Update
The sector has done pretty well this week considering the broader market and the concerns over the Fed. I still think we should remember not to fight the Fed but the fundamentals for the sector in terms of the earnings have been generally positive. There were some outliers like ABBV but for the most part […]
October 31st Biotech Update
A slow start to the week. It is not a bad start but a little weakness after a nice little run last week is a little disappointing. That being said we ran right up to the upper end of the range that seems to have developed and so it is not crazy that we struggle […]
October 28th Biotech Update
We were hitting the upper end of the range and so it is not completely surprising that we were a little weak. The tech earnings have not been great and that could hit the broader market, which would not great for the sector. That being said, The sector has been holding its own and the […]
October 27th Biotech Update
A strong start yesterday but it weakened in the afternoon. We are near the top of the range that seems to have developed. It would not be surprising to see that upper end act as resistance. I am not sure there is anything that can happen today that could be definitive. Even if we break […]
October 25 Biotech Update
Not an awful start to the week. Yesterday could have been better but it is a solid day today (at least at the start). We have been in a pretty tight range and I would not be surprised this week if we do not get to the $83.50 level on the XBI. When we have […]
October 19th Biotech Update
The market has not done too bad this week. If I take a step back I would almost be tempted to say that the sector is holding support around these levels. Obviously we can still break down if the market restarts its move lower but given at least a benign broader market, I think the […]
October 17th Biotech Update
Another week and another set of worries but the macro environment is about the same. We have the Fed and interest rates (and tied into that are the inflation numbers and potential recession caused by the rising rates). We also have the international political risks and this includes the war in Ukraine and do not […]
October 14th Biotech Update
I had a sneaking suspicion that we would reverse on that gap lower but in no way shape or form are we out of the woods. The Fed still will increase rates and risks to the financial markets remain high. It seemed that the doom and gloom had reached extreme levels and so a short […]
October 13th Biotech Update
We firmly remain in do not fight the Fed mode. They have been quite clear and consistent that they will be focused on bringing down inflation through rate increases and that the job is not done. I remain convinced that inflation has peaked and is rolling over in real time. The problem is that in […]
October 10th Biotech Update
Last week was an odd one of sorts. It started off quite strong but ended a weak. Overall it ended up being a slightly positive week but the way it ended did not feel great. The Fed speakers continue to push the narrative of rate hikes and I do not see that ended anytime in […]
October 5th Biotech Update
Apparently all I need to do is put out a cautious note and the market takes off. I am going to goose the market even more as I am still not convinced we are out of the woods. I do not see us at the end of the interest rate hikes and the Fed wants […]
October 3rd Biotech Update
I am really torn on the market right now. There is not a lot going on in biotech to make it really capable of swimming against the current (if the broader market weakens) and so I think macro really matters. I want to focus on two macro issues that I think are weighing on the […]
September 29th Biotech Update
As much as we had a good day early this week, the market looks really tenuous. I have seen some statistics about position that look quite bullish (i.e. investors are extremely under-invested) but I have also seen some statistics that show the interest rates have move very fast and the market needs to catch up […]
September 27th Biotech Update
The broader market continues to have issues with rates and inflation, although the sector did a little better yesterday. I fully expect the sector to outperform today and would be quite disappointed if not for a longer period of time. We finally have something to be a little excited about and it came from a […]
September 26th Biotech Update
A green start to the week? It seems that way but after last week, it seems a little less than exciting. Is this simply the rally that resets the oversold conditions for another leg lower or is this the rally that stops the bleeding and starts to build a new base? Who really knows but […]
September 23rd Biotech Update
It has not been a good week for the market or the sector. We have clearly broken down and interest rate concerns are probably going to at best keep a lid on the upside and at worst continue the downside. I do not think it was a coincidence that the sector seemed to get it […]
September 21st Biotech Update
The sector has managed to not breakdown and that is good. We are still in a precarious position with the macro still having the potential to drive us down regardless of the fundamentals. It really depends on the rate increase and how much the sector has priced in that action. We know that rates are […]
September 19th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week but unfortunately not a good start to the sector. We are at a critical area as I think the $80 level needs to hold on the XBI to limit the potential for a clear breakdown. This has been support and resistance and a break below would not be a […]
