It is a New Year and two paths diverge in the sector. One would be an unprecedented third year in a row of decline and the second would be the first up year after back to back declines. I am going to use the next couple days to delineate my predictions for 2023. LLY […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Prediction reviews)
We end the year hopefully on an up note but nothing has really changed about the sector. We are range bound and a drifting in the range. The length of time spent in this range really makes it into really strong support or resistance for the move. It makes me think that when we do […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Review of my first 5 2022 predictions)
As the year wraps up it might be time to go back through my predictions for 2022 as I get the 10 ready for 2023. It can be a little humbling as one is not always as right as one would have hoped but I will review 5 today and 5 tomorrow. Prediction 1 The […]
December 28th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week but we remain in a range and rangebound. We are back at the bottom of that range and I do not see anything in the sector that should break us out one way or another. If anything, I think we start to drift a little higher as we […]
December 22nd Biotech Update
The sector has done well since we approached the lower end of the range as was expected. A bounce from the low end made perfect sense. We are basically in the middle of the range and I still suspect that the sector makes it way to the upper end around $86. It will not be […]
December 20th Biotech Update
It was not a great start to the week. We still remain in that range and what we want to avoid is a low volume breakdown of that range. I do not think it would signal a clear breakdown if that were to occur, but it would put the sector teetering on the edge. Ideally, […]
December 19th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the week but we continue to be in that range and as trading dries up this week, I doubt we get a massive high volume breakdown or breakout. We are at the lower end of the range and perhaps there is a little more downside, but we likely bounce back […]
December 14th Biotech Update
The market is doing OK with the CPI number. You would have preferred not to have seen the fade but given the previous history with trading on CPI numbers, I still count this as a win. It helps that the number was close to expectations and that it seems to have peaked. In other words, […]
December 13th Biotech Update
A decent start to the week, which was to be expected with the large deal. AMGN held up better than I would have expected, and the sector did well but remains in the range. We are getting to the holiday season and so I would not read too much into the moves but we still […]
December 12th Biotech Update
I think we are clearly in the range given the news flow and the market reaction. It is not necessarily bad but I think one has to play the range until shown otherwise. This has been a pretty long time in the range and so the break out (up or down) should be pretty clear […]
December 8th Biotech Update
It was basically a flat day but certainly some movers beneath the surface. I think the relatively flat market did not reflect the large moves in some of the news. We seem to be ending the year with news and even more news. While not all of it has been good, there is enough good […]
December 7th Biotech Update
I will spend less time on the general market but more on two big data readouts. There is nothing that has changed in terms of the broader sector or market. I still think we are range bound and likely will remain so through the end of the year. GOSS announced a positive trial and got […]
December 6th Biotech Update
The year seems to be winding down as we stay in this little range. I am not convinced that this is a bad thing (as long as we end up breaking to the upside as this will be nice strong support). I think the Fed and rates has faded to the background a little but […]
December 2nd Biotech Update
We remain in a range, although there certainly seems to be a pattern with the larger caps outperforming. As I have noted many times, I suspect that if generalists are going to enter the sector they will first do it through the large caps and then down the capital structure to SMID. We need generalists […]
December 1st Biotech Update
Not surprised by the positive day given the news. Positive clinical data. M&A interests. Add in seasonality and it was a nice constellation of events. I wonder what happens later in the month as we get closer to tax loss selling. This is a sector that certainly has its share of tax loss selling potential […]
November 30th Biotech Update
Are we setting up for the Santa rally? It would be a nice way to end the year and perhaps kick off early next year with a strong JPM. I think we are getting closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and if we think the market is typically 6 months ahead then […]
November 22nd Biotech Update
Not the greatest start to the week but I have a hard time reading too much into this week’s trading. I did notice that large caps outperformed SMID and that has been my theme for a little bit. I still think investors come back into biotech first through large caps and in some ways the […]
November 21st Biotech Update
This should be a week of lower volume as people get ready for the Holiday. These can be a little more volatile, especially when volume dries up later in the week. Of course, it could end up simply being a boring set of relatively flat days. If we do get a bigger move, I would […]
November 15th Biotech Update
We had a nice little continuation yesterday and I would not be surprised if we do not run into a pause that refreshes (or at least it would be healthy to do so). There are a couple of different ways to think about the recent move. I would lean towards the focus on the Fed […]
November 14th Biotech Update
We had a nice little rally to end the week and while I would like to say it was related to strong fundamentals, I think it was more macro related. It certainly helped that the sector has generally had a strong earnings season (as compared to something like tech) but I suspect that the market […]
