Volatility is the name of the game. Uncertainty breeds caution and is not a good setup for investments. You are not going to build out capacity if you do not know future costs or demand. This is why everyone is fearing a recession and the move into a bear market. Bear markets are quite dangerous […]
April 9th Biotech Update
In some ways it looked like the sector would be able to bottom or recover a little but even when we saw some green in the broader market the sector floundered. Pick a reason why. Rates are going up even thought the economy could be entering a recession. You have economic uncertainty. You have regulatory […]
April 4th Biotech Update
So, it has not been the best end to the week (to say the least). If we want to try and put the best spin on it, then I would say that the sector has outperformed. If you would have told me that the broader markets were going to be this weak, then I would […]
April 1st Biotech Update
So I think it is safe to say that the sector has broken down. While rates have become a more favorable backdrop, the regulatory uncertainty combined with political risks have overwhelmed everything that could have boosted the sector. I do not think we will be able to get into a bull market until that resolves. […]
March 20th Biotech Update
Are we bottoming and setting up a nice long base from which to start a bull market? Perhaps. It seems like investors are getting used to the uncertainty to an extend even if there has not been a lot that has been firmly resolved. There has not been a government shut down. RFK JR. has […]
March 11th Biotech Update
Another day and another big loss in the market. Not even the large cap healthcare names are holding up. I do think we are likely due for a bounce back rally but I also structurally worry about the market going forward. It was pretty highly valued to start with and now with the political uncertainty […]
March 10th Biotech Update
It is actually a pretty good news day for the sector but it does so while the broader markets are collapsing. To be fair, you would expect to see the sector down a lot lower given the broader markets but it is actually outperforming (on a relative basis) really well. So despite having a red […]
March 3rd Biotech Update
The sector saved itself last week but it is a new week and new uncertainties abound. While I am not sure how much play it received or whether it matters, but in light of the measles outbreak in west Texas, RFK wrote an opinion piece for Fox News in which he called the outbreak a […]
February 28th Biotech Update
We are in a very precarious spot right now (at least for the SMID space). We are very close to setting a lower low on the recent selling pressure. I do not think we have done it yet, but I also do not think we could come any closer to setting a lower low without […]
February 26th Biotech Update
There is a slightly concerning trend in the sector right now. While we have not broken down we are at the bottom end of the recent range but the problem is that we got there while rates were coming down. My assumption has been that one of the largest headwinds to the SMID cap space […]
February 21st Biotech Update
Did we have a clearing event with the confirmation of RFK JR or is that copium? The initial indication is that there has been a little relief rally and if we can keep as close to the old status quo as possible (not too many massive changes) and rates can come down then the sector […]
February 11th Biotech Update
Still not looking great for the sector. While there is not a ton of positive news to move the sector forward, rates are starting to tick higher. Perhaps this is only a momentary move, and we will reverse lower on rates but if rates start a more consistent move higher, then there is no shot […]
February 10th Biotech Update
Well, we have not been able to breakout and now are back at the lower end of the potential range. We really need to hold these levels as we do not want to be talking about a potential breakdown. We are not there yet but we are getting closer to that point. I am not […]
February 5th Biotech Update
The sector seems to be recovering a little bit. I would not claim success but I do not think we are close to breaking down but I would also not say that we are in some new uptrend. If we can get above $95, then we could start the conversation about a potential higher high […]
January 28th Biotech Update
There has been some interesting news outside of the sector with a big hit to big tech that questions all of the massive investment in AI. While a complete market collapse would not be good for the sector, I think an ignition of some risk into the Magnificent 7 stocks that leads to a decreased […]
January 24th Biotech Update
Well, the sector is doing a little better but we are still not out of the woods. I would feel better once we break out of the recent high. We do not want to be in a situation where we set a lower high. We are close but need to get above $95 before we […]
January 22nd Biotech Update
So the sector is looking a little better. I would not say it looks good but a nice little move the other day takes it away from the abyss. That being said there still is the possibility that we are going to set a lower high followed by a lower low. We need to get […]
January 14th Biotech Update
I am a little torn about the trading yesterday. On the one hand, it looks like a washout low with a reversal, which is really good. On the other hand, if we cannot continue that momentum and move significantly higher that might only be a small respite for another move lower later this month. Remember […]
January 13th Biotech Update
JPM week starts with some deals, some potential deals, data, pre-announcements and most importantly I think a disappointed investor sentiment. I think there is enough to not be a true bust for the sector, but I also do not think there is enough action to really generate enough interest in the sector. It is still […]
January 9th Biotech Update
The sector has recovered a little but I would not say that it is anywhere near a really great place. We have moved from the edge of disaster and are more clearly within the trading range that seems to have developed. As I noted before any trading or movement this week can very easily be […]
